Table 1.

COVID-19 Case Growth and Prior Proximity to Cases.

Panel A	log(Change in Cases per 10k Residents + 1)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
2 Week Lag:	0.589***	0.415***					0.414***	0.321***
log(Change in Social Proximity to Cases + 1)	(0.041)	(0.036)					(0.041)	(0.037)
4 Week Lag:	-0.124***	-0.080**					-0.002	0.010
log(Change in Social Proximity to Cases + 1)	(0.037)	(0.032)					(0.036)	(0.032)
Share of Friends within 50 Miles			0.096	0.031			0.050	0.076
			(0.106)	(0.086)			(0.100)	(0.082)
Share of Friends within 150 Miles			0.018	0.214*			-0.256**	0.143
			(0.123)	(0.113)			(0.124)	(0.109)
2 Week Lag:					1.432***	1.754***	1.244***	1.388***
log(Change in Physical Proximity to Cases + 1)					(0.129)	(0.184)	(0.118)	(0.176)
4 Week Lag:					-1.208***	-1.433***	-1.037***	-1.225***
log(Change in Physical Proximity to Cases + 1)					(0.131)	(0.196)	(0.121)	(0.187)
2 Week Lag:	0.317***	0.316***	0.646***	0.526***	0.604***	0.514***	0.372***	0.351***
log(Change in Cases per 10k Residents + 1)	(0.022)	(0.018)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.022)	(0.019)
4 Week Lag:	0.113***	0.092***	0.077***	0.063***	0.097***	0.072***	0.071***	0.056***
log(Change in Cases per 10k Residents + 1)	(0.019)	(0.016)	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.019)	(0.017)
Time x Pop. Density FEs	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Time x Median Household Income FEs	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Time x State FEs		Y		Y		Y		Y
Sample Mean	2.177	2.177	2.177	2.177	2.177	2.177	2.177	2.177
R-Squared	0.717	0.755	0.706	0.752	0.718	0.754	0.725	0.757
N	47,040	47,025	47,040	47,025	47,040	47,025	47,040	47,025
Panel B	log(Change in Deaths per 10k Residents + 1)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
4 Week Lag:	0.471***	0.240***					0.273***	0.141***
log(Change in Social Proximity to Deaths + 1)	(0.058)	(0.049)					(0.049)	(0.046)
8 Week Lag:	-0.018	-0.057					0.187***	0.084*
log(Change in Social Proximity to Deaths + 1)	(0.054)	(0.041)					(0.052)	(0.043)
Share of Friends within 50 Miles			0.109	0.149**			0.060	0.156**
			(0.076)	(0.070)			(0.066)	(0.066)
Share of Friends within 150 Miles			0.040	0.129			-0.014	0.116
			(0.083)	(0.078)			(0.081)	(0.074)
4 Week Lag:					0.738***	0.899***	0.691***	0.802***
log(Change in Physical Proximity to Deaths + 1)					(0.069)	(0.125)	(0.067)	(0.124)
8 Week Lag:					-0.657***	-0.828***	-0.699***	-0.865***
log(Change in Physical Proximity to Deaths + 1)					(0.077)	(0.136)	(0.078)	(0.142)
4 Week Lag:	0.163***	0.230***	0.467***	0.366***	0.425***	0.361***	0.247***	0.276***
log(Change in Deaths per 10k Residents + 1)	(0.032)	(0.027)	(0.021)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.016)	(0.027)	(0.026)
8 Week Lag:	0.016	0.052**	0.025	0.019	0.063***	0.032*	-0.064**	-0.019
log(Change in Deaths per 10k Residents + 1)	(0.033)	(0.022)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.032)	(0.023)
Time x Pop. Density FEs	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Time x Median Household Income FEs	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Time x State FEs		Y		Y		Y		Y
Sample Mean	0.375	0.375	0.375	0.375	0.375	0.375	0.375	0.375
R-Squared	0.374	0.455	0.360	0.454	0.384	0.459	0.392	0.461
N	21,952	21,945	21,952	21,945	21,952	21,945	21,952	21,945

Note: Table shows results from regression 5. In Panel A, each observation is a county $\times$ two-week period (between March 30, and November 2, 2020). The dependent variable is log of one plus the number of new COVID-19 cases per 10,000 residents. In Panel B, each observation is a county $\times$ four-week period (between April 28, and November 2, 2020). The dependent variable is log of one plus the number of new COVID-19 deaths per 10,000 residents. Columns 1 and 2 include log of growth in social proximity to cases (deaths) lagged by one and two periods (two and four weeks in Panel A, four and eight weeks in Panel B). Columns 5 and 6 include analogous measures of physical proximity to cases (deaths). Columns 3 and 4 also control for the share of a county’s Facebook connections that are within 50 and 150 miles. Columns 7 and 8 include all measures. All columns include controls for one and two period lagged changes in cases (deaths), as well as time-specific fixed effects for percentiles of county population density and median household income. Columns 2, 4, 6, and 8 include additional time $\times$ state fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the time $\times$ state level. Significance levels: *(p$<$0.10), **(p$<$0.05), ***(p$<$0.01).