Table 1.
Changes in glucose during exercise, and results of the best performing ML models to predict minimum glucose in the 4 h following exercise
| Participant ID | Mean Glucose Drop During Exercise [mg/dL] | Standard Care Arm | Predictive Low-Glucose Suspend Arm | Single-hormone AP Arm | Dual-hormone AP Arm | Average difference measured during identical exercise [mg/dL] | Ex modelb MARE [%] | Ex modelb, RMSE [mg/dL] | 4-h modelc MARE [%] | 4-h modelc RMSE [mg/dL] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1a | −92.4 ± 24.0 | −74.5 ± 10.6 | −79.5 ± 3.5 | −122.0 ± 12.7 | −93.5 ± 31.8 | 20.8 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 13.8 | 10.0 |
| 2a | −100.3 ± 23.4 | −107.0 ± 1.4 | −122.0 ± 1.4 | −106.5 ± 12.0 | −65.5 ± 12.0 | 9.5 | 17.6 | 13.8 | 24.9 | 18.5 |
| 3 | −41.4 ± 37.2 | −61.0 ± 39.6 | −54.0 ± 25.5 | 11.0 ± 9.9 | −61.5 ± 3.5 | 27.8 | 11.7 | 15.9 | 26.1 | 33.5 |
| 4a | −91.1 ± 47.6 | −132.0 ± 58.0 | −93.0 ± 35.4 | −93.5 ± 57.3 | −46.0 ± 22.6 | 61.3 | 19.1 | 16.9 | 17.9 | 13.1 |
| 5a | −104.1 ± 28.4 | −74.0 ± 25.5 | −105.0 ± 25.5 | −110.0 ± 36.8 | −127.5 ± 4.9 | 32.8 | 22.7 | 21.4 | 25.3 | 18.8 |
| 6 | −118.5 ± 48.1 | −119.5 ± 13.4 | −127.5 ± 91.2 | −96.5 ± 57.3 | −130.5 ± 54.4 | 76.5 | 24.2 | 41.9 | 21.9 | 30.6 |
| 7a | −83.6 ± 54.4 | −79.5 ± 46.0 | −109.5 ± 102.5 | −43.5 ± 10.6 | −101.8 ± 52.0 | 74.6 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 8.4 |
| 8a | −101.1 ± 39.1 | −145.5 ± 48.8 | −106.5 ± 20.5 | −86.0 ± 5.7 | −66.5 ± 31.8 | 37.8 | 23.5 | 20.1 | 18.3 | 15.2 |
| 9a | −86.6 ± 56.4 | −37.3 ± 34.3 | −65.0 ± 56.6 | −111.5 ± 61.5 | −132.5 ± 53.0 | 72.6 | 17.1 | 17.2 | 33.1 | 43.2 |
| 10a | −97.8 ± 50.0 | −71.0 ± 2.8 | −74.5 ± 101.1 | −126.5 ± 29.0 | −119.0 ± 36.8 | 60.0 | 28.9 | 35.0 | 15.7 | 28.9 |
| 11 | −94.4 ± 33.9 | −95.5 ± 14.8 | −93.0 ± 63.6 | −106.5 ± 54.4 | −82.5 ± 14.8 | 52.3 | 23.5 | 24.6 | 22.8 | 23.0 |
| 12a | −55.4 ± 26.7 | −20.8 ± 15.2 | −66.0 ± 22.6 | −83.0 ± 5.7 | −52.0 ± 7.1 | 17.9 | 22.1 | 41.0 | 17.8 | 21.3 |
| 13 | −36.0 ± 23.1 | −9.0 ± 2.8 | −48.0 ± 15.6 | −27.0 ± 18.4 | −60.0 ± 9.9 | 16.5 | 16.3 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 12.4 |
| 14 | −112.6 ± 42.8 | −98.0 ± 46.7 | −102.0 ± 65.1 | −97.8 ± 35.7 | −152.5 ± 29.0 | 62.4 | 19.5 | 24.6 | 19.3 | 18.5 |
| 15 | −88.1 ± 36.7 | −104.5 ± 82.7 | −102.5 ± 17.7 | −73.0 ± 11.3 | −72.5 ± 16.3 | 45.3 | 16.1 | 15.9 | 16.1 | 16.8 |
| 16a | −77.1 ± 33.9 | −57.5 ± 17.7 | −45.0 ± 25.5 | −91.5 ± 27.6 | −114.5 ± 16.3 | 30.8 | 23.4 | 20.4 | 19.8 | 21.0 |
| 17 | −69.4 ± 38.0 | −23.0 ± 19.8 | −111.5 ± 0.7 | −79.5 ± 17.7 | −63.5 ± 36.1 | 26.3 | 22.0 | 28.1 | 22.8 | 32.0 |
| 18 | −97.0 ± 48.7 | N/A | −115.5 ± 2.1 | −135.0 ± 4.2 | −40.5 ± 43.1 | 23.3 | 19.4 | 23.5 | 39.0 | 53.5 |
| 19 | −74.0 ± 23.6 | −78.0 ± 25.5 | −68.0 ± 12.7 | −95.0 ± 15.6 | −55.0 ± 33.9 | 31.0 | 20.0 | 30.1 | 25.3 | 29.0 |
| 20a | −63.0 ± 54.0 | −140.0 ± 21.2 | −54.5 ± 20.5 | −13.0 ± 33.9 | −44.5 ± 26.2 | 36.0 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 22.5 | 19.0 |
| Mean ± Std | −84.2 ± 43.26 | −80.4 ± 46.6 | −87.1 ± 42.9 | −84.3 ± 44.2 | −84.1 ± 40.7 | 40.8 ± 20.9 | 19.5 ± 4.7 | 22.1 ± 9.4 | 21.3 ± 6.8 | 23.3 ± 11.3 |
Participant 18 SMBG data was not available for the standard-care arm, and is not reported.
a
indicates participants with higher aerobic fitness.
b
indicates the performance of the model designed to predict minimum glucose at the end of exercise, specifically, the MARS model designed with exercise history and adaptive personalization.
c
indicates the performance of the model designed to predict minimum glucose within 4-h following the start of exercise, specifically, the MARS model that underwent adaptive personalization.