Table 1.
Number and proportion of individuals aged 70 years and above not vaccinated for dose 1 and dose 2 of the COVID-19 vaccine between 8 December 2020 and 17 May 2021 in England and the odds of being unvaccinated from a multivariable logistic regression and mean adjusted prevalence from the model fit
| Characteristics | Dose 1 not vaccinated n/N (%) | Dose 1 multivariable regression OR and 95% CI | Dose 1 predictive margins | Dose 2 not vaccinated n/N (%) | Dose 2 not vaccinated/those with dose 1 n/n (%) | Dose 2 multivariable regression OR and 95% CI* | Dose 2 predictive margins (%) and 95% CI† | |
| Age (years) | 70–74 | 169 173/2 877 391 (5.9%) | Baseline | 5.42% (5.39 to 5.44) | 271 998/2 877 391 (9.5%) | 102 825/271 998 (37.8%) | Baseline | 9.14% (9.11 to 9.17) |
| 75–79 | 100 478/2 086 215 (4.8%) | 0.86 (0.85 to 0.87) | 4.74% (4.72 to 4.77) | 161 503/2 086 215 (7.7%) | 61 025/161 503 (37.8%) | 0.82 (0.82 to 0.83) | 7.76% (7.72 to 7.79) | |
| >80 | 140 785/2 830 943 (5.0%) | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.01) | 5.44% (5.41 to 5.46) | 247 875/283 0943 (8.8%) | 107 090/247 875 (43.2%) | 0.98 (0.97 to 0.98) | 8.95% (8.92 to 8.98) | |
| Urban/Rural status | Urban areas | 348 992/5 906 988 (5.9%) | Baseline | 5.46% (5.44 to 5.47) | 571 598/5 906 988 (9.7%) | 222 606/571 598 (38.9%) | Baseline | 9.00% (8.98 to 9.02) |
| Rural areas | 60 218/188 0742 (3.2%) | 0.77 (0.76 to 0.77) | 4.31% (4.28 to 4.35) | 108 020/1 880 742 (5.7%) | 47 802/108 020 (44.3%) | 0.81 (0.80 to 0.81) | 7.50% (7.45 to 7.54) | |
| Other/Unknown | 1226/6819 (18.0%) | – | – | 1758/6819 (25.8%) | 532/1758 (30.3%) | – | – | |
| Clinically extremely vulnerable | Not clinically extremely vulnerable | 333 971/6 158 381 (5.4%) | Baseline | 5.75% (5.73 to 5.77) | 523 938/6 158 381 (8.5%) | 189 967/523 938 (36.3%) | Baseline | 8.93% (8.91 to 8.95) |
| Clinically extremely vulnerable | 76 464/1 636 167 (4.7%) | 0.61 (0.61 to 0.62) | 3.72% (3.70 to 3.75) | 157 437/1 636 167 (9.6%) | 80 973/157 437 (51.4%) | 0.88 (0.87 to 0.89) | 8.01% (7.97 to 8.05) | |
| Care home status | Not in a care home | 404 206/7 578 254 (5.3%) | Baseline | 5.25% (5.24 to 5.27) | 663 275/7 578 254 (8.8%) | 259 069/663 275 (39.1%) | Baseline | 8.67% (8.65 to 8.69) |
| In a care home | 6230/216 295 (2.9%) | 0.89 (0.87 to 0.91) | 4.74% (4.63 to 4.85) | 18 101/216 295 (8.4%) | 11 871/18 101 (65.6%) | 1.18 (1.16 to 1.20) | 10.00% (9.86 to 10.13) | |
| IMD deprivation decile | Most deprived | 44 759/515 973 (8.7%) | Baseline | 9.47% (9.39 to 9.56) | 76 750/515 973 (14.9%) | 31 991/76 750 (41.7%) | Baseline | 15.13% (15.03 to 15.23) |
| 47 804/567 221 (8.4%) | 0.75 (0.74 to 0.76) | 7.44% (7.38 to 7.50) | 77 905/567 221 (13.7%) | 30 101/77 905 (38.6%) | 0.76 (0.76 to 0.77) | 12.19% (12.11 to 12.27) | ||
| 47 565/627 241 (7.6%) | 0.64 (0.64 to 0.65) | 6.54% (6.49 to 6.60) | 77 343/627 241 (12.3%) | 29 778/77 343 (38.5%) | 0.66 (0.66 to 0.67) | 10.85% (10.78 to 10.93) | ||
| 45 373/722 661 (6.3%) | 0.57 (0.57 to 0.58) | 5.93% (5.87 to 5.98) | 73 905/722 661 (10.2%) | 28 532/73 905 (38.6%) | 0.59 (0.58 to 0.59) | 9.75% (9.69 to 9.82) | ||
| 42 635/796 652 (5.4%) | 0.51 (0.5 to 0.52) | 5.34% (5.29 to 5.39) | 70 283/796 652 (8.8%) | 27 648/70 283 (39.3%) | 0.52 (0.52 to 0.53) | 8.84% (8.78 to 8.9) | ||
| 40 935/858 303 (4.8%) | 0.46 (0.45 to 0.46) | 4.84% (4.79 to 4.88) | 67 766/858 303 (7.9%) | 26 831/67 766 (39.6%) | 0.47 (0.46 to 0.47) | 8.06% (8.00 to 8.12) | ||
| 38 086/894 485 (4.3%) | 0.42 (0.41 to 0.43) | 4.48% (4.44 to 4.52) | 63 503/894 485 (7.1%) | 25 417/63 503 (40.0%) | 0.43 (0.43 to 0.44) | 7.48% (7.42 to 7.53) | ||
| 36 684/918 054 (4.0%) | 0.39 (0.39 to 0.4) | 4.21% (4.16 to 4.25) | 61 723/918 054 (6.7%) | 25 039/61 723 (40.6%) | 0.41 (0.4 to 0.41) | 7.09% (7.04 to 7.14) | ||
| 33 833/934 779 (3.6%) | 0.35 (0.34 to 0.35) | 3.77% (3.73 to 3.81) | 56 910/934 779 (6.1%) | 23 077/56 910 (40.5%) | 0.36 (0.36 to 0.37) | 6.40% (6.35 to 6.44) | ||
| Least deprived | 30 264/947 216 (3.2%) | 0.31 (0.30 to 0.31) | 3.40% (3.36 to 3.43) | 51 417/947 216 (5.4%) | 21 153/51 417 (41.1%) | 0.32 (0.32 to 0.33) | 5.79% (5.75 to 5.84) | |
| Unknown | 2498/11 964 (20.9%) | – | – | 3871/11 964 (32.4%) | 1373/3871 (35.5%) | – | – | |
| Ethnicity | White | 204 842/6 555 567 (3.1%) | Baseline | 3.23% (3.21 to 3.24) | 409 220/6 555 567 (6.2%) | 204 378/409 220 (49.9%) | Baseline | 6.43% (6.41 to 6.45) |
| Mixed/Multiple ethnic | 5446/34 247 (15.9%) | 4.38 (4.25 to 4.52) | 12.44% (12.12 to 12.75) | 7612/34 247 (22.2%) | 2166/7612 (28.5%) | 3.25 (3.17 to 3.34) | 17.87% (17.50 to 18.25) | |
| Indian | 11 881/121 720 (9.8%) | 2.19 (2.14 to 2.23) | 6.73% (6.61 to 6.85) | 18257/121720 (15.0%) | 6376/18 257 (34.9%) | 1.82 (1.79 to 1.85) | 11.02% (10.87 to 11.18) | |
| Pakistani | 10 528/52 518 (20.0%) | 5.26 (5.14 to 5.38) | 14.47% (14.21 to 14.74) | 18 530/52 518 (35.3%) | 8002/18 530 (43.2%) | 5.53 (5.42 to 5.63) | 26.63% (26.28 to 26.97) | |
| Other Asian or Asian | 13 706/82 251 (16.7%) | 3.72 (3.65 to 3.79) | 10.80% (10.62 to 10.98) | 19 797/82 251 (24.1%) | 6091/19 797 (30.8%) | 3.04 (2.99 to 3.09) | 16.93% (16.70 to 17.16) | |
| Black/African/Caribbean | 29 981/103 294 (29.0%) | 6.69 (6.58 to 6.79) | 17.58% (17.37 to 17.79) | 41 162/103 294 (39.8%) | 11 181/41 162 (27.2%) | 5.36 (5.29 to 5.43) | 26.06% (25.81 to 26.31) | |
| Other ethnic group | 10 227/58 524 (17.5%) | 4.16 (4.07 to 4.25) | 11.89% (11.66 to 12.12) | 13 907/58 524 (23.8%) | 3680/13 907 (26.5%) | 3.14 (3.07 to 3.2) | 17.36% (17.09 to 17.64) | |
| Not stated/Unknown | 123 825/786 428 (15.7%) | 6.00 (5.95 to 6.04) | 16.12% (16.03 to 16.2) | 152 891/786 428 (19.4%) | 29 066/152 891 (19%) | 3.69 (3.66 to 3.71) | 19.73% (19.64 to 19.82) | |
| Region | East of England | 42 261/971 824 (4.3%) | Baseline | 4.73% (4.69 to 4.78) | 72 699/971 824 (7.5%) | 30 438/72 699 (41.9%) | Baseline | 8.20% (8.15 to 8.26) |
| London | 108 877/792 575 (13.7%) | 2.30 (2.27 to 2.33) | 9.77% (9.70 to 9.83) | 153 166/792 575 (19.3%) | 44 289/153 166 (28.9%) | 1.96 (1.94 to 1.98) | 14.39% (14.31 to 14.46) | |
| Midlands | 69 371/1 515 414 (4.6%) | 0.97 (0.96 to 0.98) | 4.60% (4.57 to 4.63) | 120 989/1 515 414 (8.0%) | 51 618/120 989 (42.7%) | 0.97 (0.96 to 0.98) | 7.98% (7.94 to 8.02) | |
| North East and Yorkshire | 45 147/1 232 540 (3.7%) | 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78) | 3.74% (3.71 to 3.78) | 83 505/1 232 540 (6.8%) | 38 358/83 505 (45.9%) | 0.80 (0.79 to 0.81) | 6.75% (6.71 to 6.8) | |
| North West | 45 973/973 704 (4.7%) | 0.95 (0.93 to 0.96) | 4.51% (4.47 to 4.55) | 82 655/973 704 (8.5%) | 36 682/82 655 (44.4%) | 0.97 (0.96 to 0.98) | 7.99% (7.94 to 8.04) | |
| South East | 59 447/1 334 389 (4.5%) | 1.11 (1.09 to 1.12) | 5.18% (5.14 to 5.22) | 102 275/1 334 389 (7.7%) | 42 828/102 275 (41.9%) | 1.10 (1.09 to 1.11) | 8.90% (8.85 to 8.96) | |
| South West | 36 862/962 139 (3.8%) | 0.90 (0.89 to 0.91) | 4.30% (4.26 to 4.35) | 62 216/962 139 (6.5%) | 25 354/62 216 (40.8%) | 0.88 (0.87 to 0.89) | 7.30% (7.25 to 7.36) | |
| Unknown | 2498/11 964 (20.9%) | – | – | 3 871/11 964 (32.4%) | 1373/3871 (35.5%) | – | – | |
| Sex | Female | 217 583/4 279 458 (5.1%) | Baseline | 4.95% (4.93 to 4.97) | 372 475/4 279 458 (8.7%) | 154 892/372 475 (41.6%) | Baseline | 8.60% (8.57 to 8.62) |
| Male | 192 285/3 510 687 (5.5%) | 1.16 (1.15 to 1.16) | 5.62% (5.59 to 5.64) | 305 672/3 510 687 (8.7%) | 113 387/305 672 (37.1%) | 1.03 (1.02 to 1.03) | 8.78% (8.75 to 8.81) | |
| Unknown | 568/4404 (12.9%) | 0.94 (0.84 to 1.04) | 4.67 (4.24 to 5.09) | 3229/4404 (73.3%) | 2661/3229 (82.4%) | 21.72 (19.92 to 23.69) | 60.79% (58.88 to 62.7) | |
*The odds of having a complete course of COVID-19 vaccine compared with having an incomplete (one dose) or zero vaccines.
†The per cent vaccinated may fall outside the range of the predictive margins, as they are based on the effect of the adjusted multivariable model.
‡ Index of multiple deprivation (IMD)