12. Conditional cash transfers – results of included trials.
| Study ID (risk of bias) | Study design (n) | Conditional cash transfers | No intervention | Effect measure (time point) | Effect directiona | Meta‐analysis (yes/no) | ||||
| Results at baseline | Results at follow‐up | n | Results at baseline | Results at follow‐up | n | |||||
| Primary outcomes | ||||||||||
| 2.2: Proportion of HH expenditure on food | ||||||||||
| 2.2.1 Outcome measure: proportion of HH expenditure on food (weekly/monthly) | ||||||||||
| Maluccio 2005 (+) | cRCT (1490 HHs) | 69.8 | 70 | 766 | 70.2 | 66.5 | 724 | pp 3.9, SE 1.7, 95% CI 0.568 to 7.232, P < 0.01 (1 year) | ▼ | N/A |
| cRCT (1434 HHs) | — | — | 722 | — | — | 712 | pp 4.1, SE 1.3, 95% CI 1.552 to 6.648, P < 0.01 (2 years) | ▼ | ||
| 2.2.2 Outcome measure: proportion of food in total expenditures (SDs) | ||||||||||
| Macours 2012 (+) | cRCT (3326 HHs) | — | — | — | 70% | 70.7% | Effect 0.005, SD, SE 0.009, 95% CI –0.013 to 0.023, P > 0.1 (9 months) | ▽ | ||
| 2.3: Proportion of HHs who were food secure | ||||||||||
| 2.3.2 Dietary diversity | ||||||||||
| 2.3.2.2 Outcome measure: HDDS (0–12) (mean) | ||||||||||
| Hidrobo 2014 (‐) | cRCT (2087 HHs) | 9.23 | — | — | 9.11 | — | — | MD 0.46, SE 0.11, 95% CI 0.244 to 0.676, P < 0.01 (7 months) | ▲ | Yes |
| Kurdi 2019 (‐) | cRCT (1850 HHs) | — | — | 935 HHs | — | — | 915 HHs | MD 0.374, SE 0.262, 95% CI –0.13952 to 0.88752 (2.5 years) | △ | |
| Secondary outcomes | ||||||||||
| 2.5Change in anthropometric indicators | ||||||||||
| 2.5.1 Stunting (chronic undernutrition) | ||||||||||
| 2.5.1.1 Outcome measure: proportion stunted (HAZ < –2SD) | ||||||||||
| Maluccio 2005 (+) | cRCT (722 children aged < 5 years) | 41.9 | 37.1 | — | 40.9 | 41.5 | — | pp –5.3, 95% CI –11.376 to 0.776, P < 0.1 (2 years) | △ | Yes; this subset. This was entered as MD: difference in percentage stunted |
| Gertler 2000 (PROGRESA) (?) | cRCT (n at follow‐up 1062) | — | 0.396 | — | — | 0.410 | — | OR 0.914, P = 0.495 (20 months) | △ | |
| Kusuma 2017a (?) | cRCT (1394 children aged 24–36 months) | — | — | — | — | mean 0.55 | — | DID 0.035, SE 0.046, 95% CI –0.05516 to 0.12516 pp 3.5, 95% CI –5.5 to 12.5, P > 0.05 (2 years) |
▽ | Yes; this subset. This was entered as MD: difference in percentage stunted |
| Kandpal 2016 (‐) | cRCT (351 children aged < 36 months) | — | — | — | — | 49.701 | — | pp –3.768, 95% CI –13.830 to 6.294, P > 0.1 (36 months) | △ | |
| 2.5.1.2 Outcome measure: proportion with severe stunting (HAZ < –3SD) | ||||||||||
| Kusuma 2017a (?) | cRCT (1394 children aged 24–36 months) | — | — | — | — | mean 0.29 | — | DID 0.047, SE 0.053, 95% CI –0.05688 to 0.15088. pp 4.7, 95% CI –5.7 to 15.1, P > 0.05 (2 years) |
▽ | Yes |
| Kandpal 2016 (‐) | cRCT (351 children aged < 36 months) | –10.189 | 23.952 | pp –10.189, 95% CI –18.769 to –1.607 (3 years) | ▲ | |||||
| 2.5.1.3 Outcome measure: HAZ (mean, SD) | ||||||||||
| Maluccio 2005 (+) | cRCT (1036 children aged < 5 years) | –1.79 (1.14) | –1.65 (1.15) | 479 | –1.76 (1.15) | –1.80 (1.18) | 557 | MD 0.17, 95% CI 0.0132 to 0.327, P < 0.05 (2 years) | ▲ | Yes |
| Macours 2012 (+) | cRCT (3082 children aged < 6 years) | –1.27b | — | — | –1.08b | — | — | MD 0.072, 95% CI 0.005 to 0.139, P < 0.05 (9 months) | ▲ | |
| Evans 2014 (‐) | cRCT (102 children aged 0–4 years) | — | — | — | — | — | — | MD 0.86, 95% CI –2.358 to 3.718, P > 0.1 (1.5 years) | △ | |
| Kandpal 2016 (‐) | cRCT (351 children) | — | 0.284 | — | — | –1.903 | — | MD 0.284, 95% CI –0.034 to 0.600, P < 0.1 (3 years) | △ | |
| Kurdi 2019 (‐) | cRCT (1048 children) | — | — | — | — | — | — | MD 0.109, SE 0.146, 95% CI –0.18 to 0.395 (2.5 years) | △ | |
| 2.5.2Wasting (acute undernutrition) | ||||||||||
| 2.5.2.1 Outcome measure: proportion wasted (WHZ < –2SD) | ||||||||||
| Maluccio 2005 (+) | cRCT (722 children aged < 5 years) | 1.0% | 0.4% | 479 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 557 | pp –0.4, SE 0.5, 95% CI –1.38 to 0.58, P > 0.1 (2 years) | △ | Yes |
| Kusuma 2017a (?) | cRCT (1394 children aged 24–36 months) | — | — | — | — | Mean 0.19 | — | DID –0.063, SE 0.032, 95% CI –0.12572 to –0.00028, P < 0.05 | ▲ | |
| 2.5.2.2 Outcome measure: proportion severely wasted (WHZ < –3SD | ||||||||||
| Kusuma 2017a (?) | cRCT (1394 children aged 24–36 months) | — | — | — | — | Mean 0.09 | — | Beta –0.037, SE 0.022, 95% CI –0.08012 to 0.00612, P < 0.1 | △ | |
| 2.5.2.3 Outcome measure: WHZ (mean, SD) | ||||||||||
| Evans 2014 (‐) | cRCT (63 children aged 0–4 years) | — | — | — | — | — | — | MD –0.03, SE 0.45, 95% CI –0.9120 to 0.852, P > 0.1 (1.5 years) | ▽ | Yes |
| Kurdi 2019 (‐) | cRCT (1048 children) | — | — | — | — | — | — | MD 0.190, SE 0.148, 95% CI –0.10008 to 0.48008 (2.5 years) | △ | |
| 2.5.3 Underweight | ||||||||||
| 2.5.3.1 Outcome measure: proportion underweight (WAZ < –2SD) | ||||||||||
| Maluccio 2005 (+) | cRCT (722 children aged < 5 years) | 15.3 | 10.4 | — | 14.7 | 15.8 | — | pp –6, SE 2.6, P < 0.05 (2 years) | ▲ | Yes |
| Kusuma 2017a (?) | cRCT (1394 children aged 24–36 months) | — | — | — | — | Mean 0.38 | — | DID –0.040, SE 0.036, 95% CI –0.11056 to 0.03056, P > 0.05 | △ | |
| Kandpal 2016 (‐) | cRCT (390 children aged < 36 months) | — | — | — | — | 28.72 | — | pp –2.57, 95% CI –11.980 to 6.839 (3 years) | △ | |
| 2.5.3.2 Outcome measure: proportion severely underweight (WAZ < –3SD) | ||||||||||
| Kusuma 2017a (?) | cRCT (1394 children aged 24–36 months) | — | — | — | — | Mean 0.10 | — | DID –0.025, SE 0.024, 95% CI –0.07204 to 0.02204 | △ | |
| Kandpal 2016 (‐) | cRCT (390 children aged < 36 months) | — | — | — | — | 8.51 | — | pp 1.075, 95% CI –4.72 to 6.87, P > 0.1 (3 years) | ▽ | Yes |
| 2.5.3.3 Outcome measure: weight‐for‐age z‐score (WAZ) (mean standard deviation) | ||||||||||
| Macours 2012 (+) | cRCT (3082 children aged < 6 years) | –1.06 | — | — | –0.88 | — | — | MD 0.036, SE 0.037, 95% CI –0.037 to 0.109, P > 0.1 (9 months) | △ | Yes |
| Evans 2014 (‐) | cRCT (76 children 0–4 years) | — | — | — | — | — | — | MD –0.29, SE 1.25, 95% CI –2.74 to 2.16, P > 0.1 (1.5 years) | ▽ | |
| Kandpal 2016 (‐) | cRCT (390 children < 36 months) | — | 0.14 | — | — | — | — | MD 0.140, 95% CI –0.161 to 0.438, P > 0.1 (3 years) | △ | |
| 2.5.3.4 Outcome measure: BMI‐for‐age z‐score | ||||||||||
| Evans 2014 (‐) | cRCT (64 children aged 0–4 years) | — | — | — | — | — | — | MD –1.55, 95% CI –4.43 to 1.33, P > 0.1 (1.5 years) | ▽ | |
| 2.7 Cognitive function and development | ||||||||||
| 2.7.1 Outcome measure: cognitive test scores/cognitive and socioemotional outcomes (mean, SD) | ||||||||||
| Macours 2012 (+) | cRCT (3326 children) | — | — | — | — | — | — | MD 0.1211, SE 0.028, 95% CI 0.066 to 0.176 P < 0.01 (9 months) | ▲ | Yes |
| Baird 2013 (+) | cRCT (2057 schoolgirls) | — | — | — | — | — | — | MD 0.174, 95% CI 0.0799 to 0.268, SE 0.048, P < 0.01 (2 years) | ▲ | |
| 2.8 Change in proportion of anxiety and depression | ||||||||||
| 2.8.1 Outcome measure: proportion with psychological distress | ||||||||||
| Baird 2013 (+) | cRCT (2089 schoolgirls) | — | — | — | — | Mean 0.374, SE 0.02, P < 0.01 | — | pp –0.063, SE 0.03, P < 0.05 (1 year) | ▲ | N/A |
| — | — | — | — | Mean 0.308, SE 0.017, P < 0.01 | — | pp –0.039, SE 0.047, P > 0.1 (2 years) | △ | |||
| 2.9 Morbidity | ||||||||||
| 2.9.1 Outcome measure: proportion reporting being ill in past 4 weeks/parents seeking care for illness in past 2 weeks | ||||||||||
| Gertler 2000 (PROGRESA) (?) | cRCT (7703 children aged 0–35 months) | — | — | — | — | — | — | OR 0.777, P = 0.000 (20 months) | ▲ | Yes. Gertler subgroup 3–5 years selected as converting OR to SMD not possible due to missing group sizes. |
| cRCT (19,939 children aged 3–5 years at baseline) | 0.280 | 0.097 | — | 0.263 | 0.127 | — | Estimate –0.021, 95% CI –0.045 to 0.003 (20 months) | △ | ||
| Evans 2014 (‐) | cRCT (18,192 participants) | — | — | — | — | — | — | Estimate –0.04, 95% CI –0.099 to 0.019, P > 0.1 (32 months) | △ | |
| Kandpal 2016 (‐) | cRCT (456 children aged 6–36 months) | — | — | 229 | — | 41.85 | 227 | pp 9.830, 95% CI 0.179 to 19.481, P < 0.05 (36 months) | ▼ | |
| 2.9.2 Outcome measure: number of days ill in bed (SD) | ||||||||||
| Macours 2012 (+) | cRCT (3326 children) | — | — | — | — | 0.669 | — | MD –0.357 SD, SE 0.133, 95% CI –0.6178 to –0.096, P < 0.01 (9 months) | ▲ | |
| 2.9.3 Outcome measure: proportion with anaemia | ||||||||||
| Gertler 2000 (PROGRESA) (?) | cRCT (2010 children) | — | 0.410 | — | — | 0.483 | — | OR 0.745, P = 0.012 (20 months) | ▲ | |
aEach triangle represents one study. bValues derived from graphs
▲ = Favours the intervention, 95% CI excludes 0; △ = Unclear effect potentially favouring the intervention, 95% CI includes zero; ▼ = Favours the control, 95% CI excludes 0; ▽ = Unclear effect potentially favouring the control, 95% CI includes 0. (+): low overall risk of bias; (?): unclear overall risk of bias; (‐): high overall risk of bias.
CI: confidence interval; cRCT: cluster randomised controlled trial; DID: difference in differences; HAZ: height‐for‐age z‐score; HDDS: Household Dietary Diversity Score; HH: household; MD: mean difference; n: number; N/A: not applicable/available; OR: odds ratio; pp: percentage point; SD: standard deviation; SE: standard error; SMD: standardised mean difference; WAZ: weight‐for‐age z‐score; WHZ: weight‐for‐height z‐score.