Table 1. Predicting change in Democratic thermometer advantage based on changes in perceived discrimination against Blacks, 2016–2020 (linear fixed effects regression).

Note: Entries are fixed effects regression coefficients for a two-wave panel sample, 2016–2020, in which individuals serve as fixed effects. Coefficients represent the extent to which change in the independent variable corresponds to change in the dependent variable within person. Dependent variable is 20-point scale tapping Democratic thermometer advantage, rescaled to range from 0 to 1.

	Coefficient	SE	t value	P value
Perceived discrimination against Blacks	0.024	0.006	4.240	0.000
Concern about COVID × wave	0.018	0.006	3.190	0.001
Personal finances	−0.009	0.006	−1.540	0.123
Unemployed	0.004	0.006	0.760	0.447
Wave	−0.055	0.018	−3.090	0.002
Constant	0.430	0.023	19.100	0.000
Sigma_u	0.269
Sigma_e	0.130
Rho	0.812
Observations (n)	(2407)
Individuals (n)	(1291)