Table 2. Predicting change toward Democratic vote choice based on changes in opinion on race, immigration, and China, 2016–2020 (fixed effects logit models).

Note: Entries are odds ratios corresponding to fixed effects logit analyses. Given that fixed effects logit automatically drops respondents who did not change preferences, a linear fixed effects analysis is also shown in table S1. The dependent variable equals to 1 for votes supporting the Democratic candidate and 0 otherwise.

Excluding nonvoters					Including new voters
	Odds ratio	SE	z value	P value		Odds ratio	SE	z value	P value
Support for government help for minorities	1.844	0.526	2.140	0.032	Support for government help for minorities	1.772	0.463	2.190	0.029
Support for immigration	0.830	0.186	−0.830	0.408	Support for immigration	0.864	0.183	−0.690	0.491
Support for China as opportunity	1.669	0.463	1.850	0.065	Support for China as opportunity	1.204	0.301	0.740	0.459
Concern about COVID × wave	1.391	0.366	1.250	0.210	Concern about COVID × wave	1.256	0.299	0.960	0.339
Personal finances	0.669	0.199	−1.350	0.177	Personal finances	0.795	0.205	−0.890	0.374
Unemployed	1.044	0.320	0.140	0.889	Unemployed	1.046	0.262	0.180	0.857
Wave	1.004	0.821	0.000	0.996	Wave	1.544	1.153	0.580	0.561
Observations (n)	(190)				Observations (n)	(244)
Individuals (n)	(95)				Individuals (n)	(122)