Table 3. Predicting change toward Democratic vote choice incorporating closeness to perceived party positions on race, immigration, and China, 2016–2020 (fixed effects logit models).

Note: Entries are odds ratios corresponding to fixed effects logit analyses. Given that fixed effects logit automatically drops respondents who did not change preferences, a linear fixed effects analysis is also shown in table S2. The dependent variable equals to 1 for votes supporting the Democratic candidate and 0 otherwise.

Excluding nonvoters					Including new voters
	Odds ratio	SE	z value	P value		Odds ratio	SE	z value	P value
Closeness to Democrats on race	2.411	0.894	2.370	0.018	Closeness to Democrats on race	1.954	0.605	2.170	0.030
Closeness to Democrats on immigration	1.186	0.280	0.720	0.471	Closeness to Democrats on immigration	1.087	0.228	0.400	0.690
Closeness to Democrats on China	1.375	0.314	1.400	0.163	Closeness to Democrats on China	1.509	0.336	1.850	0.064
Concern about COVID × wave	1.441	0.452	1.160	0.245	Concern about COVID × wave	1.344	0.368	1.080	0.280
Personal finances	0.718	0.218	−1.090	0.275	Personal finances	0.765	0.217	−0.940	0.345
Unemployed	1.008	0.274	0.030	0.977	Unemployed	0.991	0.239	−0.040	0.969
Wave	0.975	0.977	−0.030	0.979	Wave	1.499	1.292	0.470	0.639
Observations (n)	(174)				Observations (n)	(226)
Individuals (n)	(87)				Individuals (n)	(113)