Table 3.

Statistical results of pandemic effect regression (11).

Country	Laga	F-stats.	Prob. (F-stats.)b	Adj. R-sq.c	${\hat{r}}^0$	t-stats.	P < |t|d
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
DEU	2	2 615.5	0.000∗∗∗	0.802	−2.12%	−16.691	0.000∗∗∗
ESP	2	8 985.2	0.000∗∗∗	0.916	−2.27%	−13.026	0.000∗∗∗
IDN	2	38 989.1	0.000∗∗∗	0.985	−1.24%	−24.143	0.000∗∗∗
IND	2	101 284.5	0.000∗∗∗	0.993	4.17%	51.666	0.000∗∗∗
MEX	2	33 278.1	0.000∗∗∗	0.980	−2.37%	−21.127	0.000∗∗∗
RUS	2	3 741.9	0.000∗∗∗	0.851	10.86%	82.277	0.000∗∗∗
USA	2	18 530.2	0.000∗∗∗	0.972	−0.12%	−1.460	0.145
Broad Money (M2)
DEU	2	13 345.0	0.000∗∗∗	0.954	−0.24%	−10.490	0.000∗∗∗
IDN	2	78.5	0.000∗∗∗	0.119	0.82%	5.845	0.000∗∗∗
IND	2	78.9	0.000∗∗∗	0.103	4.00%	13.961	0.000∗∗∗
MEX	2	1 807.5	0.000∗∗∗	0.727	0.62%	5.679	0.000∗∗∗
RUS	2	679.3	0.000∗∗∗	0.510	0.44%	6.160	0.000∗∗∗
USA	2	179 627.6	0.000∗∗∗	0.997	0.01%	0.665	0.506
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
DEU	2	1 614.1	0.000∗∗∗	0.714	0.43%	23.030	0.000∗∗∗
ESP	2	1 220.9	0.000∗∗∗	0.596	0.01%	0.248	0.804
IDN	2	2 559.9	0.000∗∗∗	0.817	0.31%	21.957	0.000∗∗∗
IND	2	472.8	0.000∗∗∗	0.411	−3.00%	−40.813	0.000∗∗∗
MEX	2	373.5	0.000∗∗∗	0.354	1.23%	45.783	0.000∗∗∗
RUS	2	1 219.7	0.000∗∗∗	0.651	−0.35%	−14.257	0.000∗∗∗
USA	2	4 559.8	0.000∗∗∗	0.894	0.15%	6.803	0.000∗∗∗
Unemployment Rate
DEU	2	4 947.0	0.000∗∗∗	0.884	5.32%	25.424	0.000∗∗∗
ESP	2	6 569.4	0.000∗∗∗	0.888	0.31%	2.117	0.035∗∗
MEX	2	754.2	0.000∗∗∗	0.526	14.30%	26.306	0.000∗∗∗
RUS	1	5 743.6	0.000∗∗∗	0.898	−1.81%	−6.873	0.000∗∗∗
USA	2	132 608.9	0.000∗∗∗	0.996	−1.26%	−4.654	0.000∗∗∗
Export (Goods)
DEU	2	615.1	0.000∗∗∗	0.487	−4.29%	−5.482	0.000∗∗∗
ESP	1	1 325.7	0.000∗∗∗	0.616	−0.59%	−0.767	0.443
IDN	2	159.4	0.000∗∗∗	0.216	13.14%	10.990	0.000∗∗∗
IND	2	6 821.2	0.000∗∗∗	0.910	12.42%	20.245	0.000∗∗∗
MEX	2	2 287.6	0.000∗∗∗	0.771	7.79%	8.010	0.000∗∗∗
RUS	2	5.1	0.025∗∗	0.006	−22.90%	−27.694	0.000∗∗∗
USA	2	3 297.9	0.000∗∗∗	0.859	1.70%	3.757	0.000∗∗∗
Import (Goods)
DEU	2	726.7	0.000∗∗∗	0.529	−7.77%	−15.459	0.000∗∗∗
ESP	2	1 446.8	0.000∗∗∗	0.636	1.26%	1.762	0.078∗
IDN	2	165.4	0.000∗∗∗	0.223	0.56%	0.398	0.691
IND	2	3 746.4	0.000∗∗∗	0.847	4.47%	5.361	0.000∗∗∗
MEX	2	1 350.8	0.000∗∗∗	0.665	2.66%	2.746	0.006∗∗∗
RUS	2	1 462.1	0.000∗∗∗	0.691	−6.66%	−16.573	0.000∗∗∗
USA	1	1 216.7	0.000∗∗∗	0.693	−0.23%	−0.588	0.557
Total Reserve
DEU	2	249.2	0.000∗∗∗	0.277	7.18%	54.992	0.000∗∗∗
ESP	2	734.0	0.000∗∗∗	0.470	−0.25%	−4.833	0.000∗∗∗
IDN	2	630.5	0.000∗∗∗	0.523	−3.64%	−23.709	0.000∗∗∗
IND	2	163.7	0.000∗∗∗	0.194	2.56%	27.735	0.000∗∗∗
MEX	2	514.0	0.000∗∗∗	0.430	−0.01%	−0.195	0.845
RUS	2	872.0	0.000∗∗∗	0.572	0.20%	2.040	0.042∗∗
USA	2	157.1	0.000∗∗∗	0.225	−0.79%	−9.273	0.000∗∗∗
Exchange Rate
ESP	2	63.2	0.000∗∗∗	0.070	−0.53%	−7.553	0.000∗∗∗
IDN	2	3 613.6	0.000∗∗∗	0.863	0.09%	0.747	0.455
IND	1	1 760.5	0.000∗∗∗	0.722	−0.05%	−0.491	0.624
MEX	2	1 475.3	0.000∗∗∗	0.685	0.02%	0.074	0.941
RUS	2	117.8	0.000∗∗∗	0.152	9.35%	35.170	0.000∗∗∗

Notes.

^aLags of pandemic indicator x_t are selected by BIC criteria.

^bProb. (F-stats.) shows the significance level of F-test. ∗∗∗, ∗∗, and ∗ indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.

^cAdj. R-sq. (Adjusted R-squared) represents the goodness-of-fit of the OLS model.

^d${\hat{r}}^0$ shows estimation of the intercept of regression (11). P < |t| shows the significance level of t-test on coefficient ${\hat{r}}^0$. ∗∗∗, ∗∗, and ∗ indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. Significance implies that the hypothesis of permanent effect r⁰ = 0 should be rejected; otherwise, the permanent effect is considered to be zero.