Table 3.
Estimating the size range of PrEP need groups in Germany
| Intention, no reported risk* | Intention and risk | No intention, but risk | No intention, no reported risk | Estimated PrEP need | Unmet PrEP need (scenario 1, 16,000 PrEP users) | Unmet PrEP need (scenario 2, 22,000 PrEP users) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute number, assumption: no self-selection bias | 40,000 | 37,000 | 32,000 | 241,000 | 109,000 | 93,000 | 87,000 | |
| Self-selection | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | ||||
| Absolute number, assumption: medium self-selection bias, determined by PrEP use intention > partner numbers (variant 1) | 22,000* | 17,000* | 27,000** | 284,000 | 66,000 | 50,000 | 44,000 | |
| Self-selection | 11% | 13% | 7% | 5% | ||||
| Absolute number, assumption: medium self-selection bias, mainly determined by partner numbers > PrEP use intentions (variant 2) | 20,000 | 15,000 | 17,000 | 298,000 | 52,000 | 36,000 | 30,000 | |
| Self-selection | 12% | 15% | 11% | 5% | ||||
| Absolute number, assumption: extreme self-selection, only determined by PrEP use intention | 7500 | 7000 | 35,000 | 300,500 | 49,500 | 33,500 | 27,500 | |
| Self-selection | 31% | 32% | 5% | 5% | ||||