Table 4.

Risk of New Onset Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Under 3 Hypothetical Scenarios as Estimated Using G-Computation and Agent-Based Modeling^a

Model and Simulation Scenario	Absolute Risk, %	95% CI	RD, %	95% CI
G-computation
Natural course	15.1	14.4, 18.5
Reduce violence 37.2%	15.0	14.4, 18.4	−0.12	−0.29, 0.16
Reduce violence 100%	14.9	14.2, 18.3	−0.28	−0.70, 0.30
Increase income for the lowest quintile	13.6	13.1, 17.3	−1.55	−2.12, −0.40
Agent-based model
Natural course	14.9	14.4, 15.5
Reduce violence 37.2%	14.8	14.3, 15.5	−0.07	−0.10, 0.05
Reduce violence 100%	14.7	14.1, 15.3	−0.26	−0.34, −0.15
Increase income for the lowest quintile	13.4	12.9, 14.1	−1.53	−1.65, −1.41
Agent-based model with perpetration
Natural course	14.9	14.3, 15.5
Reduce violence 37.2%	14.9	14.2, 15.4	0.00	−0.09, 0.10
Reduce violence 100%	14.6	14.1, 15.3	−0.25	−0.32, −0.09
Increase income for the lowest quintile	13.4	12.9, 14.1	−1.47	−1.54, −1.31
Agent-based model with perpetration and neighborhood effects
Natural course	15.0	14.5, 15.8
Reduce violence 37.2%	15.0	14.5, 15.8	0.00	−0.11, 0.09
Reduce violence 100%	14.7	14.1, 15.3	−0.36	−0.47, −0.26
Increase income for the lowest quintile	13.5	12.8, 14.0	−1.58	−1.75, −1.51

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; RD, risk difference.

^a Simulated population of 500,000 adults representative of the New York City metropolitan area, 2002–2006.