Table 3.
Risk difference for prolonged opioid use per 1000 patients and projected number of reduced cases of prolonged opioid use associated with varying day supply limits.
| Day Supply Limit | Observed Risk/1,000 Above Limit | Estimated Risk/1,000 At Limita | Risk Difference (95% CI) | NNTb | No. (%) of Surgeries above Cutoff | # of Reduced Prolonged Opioid Use Casesc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 20.0 | 15.4 | 4.61 (2.12,7.10) | 217 | 687,941 (92.3%) | 3,170 |
| 3 | 22.2 | 17.4 | 4.81 (3.36,6.26) | 208 | 570,079 (76.5%) | 2,740 |
| 4 | 24.4 | 19.6 | 4.84 (3.59,6.09) | 207 | 466,960 (62.7%) | 2,255 |
| 5 | 30.0 | 25.8 | 4.19 (3.01,5.38) | 239 | 271,288 (36.4%) | 1,135 |
| 6 | 31.5 | 27.2 | 4.28 (2.06,6.51) | 234 | 230,795 (31.0%) | 986 |
| 7 | 34.6 | 32.6 | 2.04 (−0.17,4.25) | 491 | 167,548 (22.5%) | 341 |
| 8 | 36.8 | 33.0 | 3.78 (1.57,5.99) | 265 | 124,513 (16.7%) | 469 |
| 10 | 41.7 | 39.8 | 1.93 (−0.97,4.83) | 519 | 63,302 (8.5%) | 121 |
| 15 | 46.7 | 45.2 | 1.51 (−2.85,5.87) | 663 | 25,662 (3.4%) | 38 |
a
Risk calculated using g-computation methods with 95% confidence intervals based on the standard deviation of 200 bootstrapped resamples, estimating risk of prolonged use if all patients above the limit had instead received a prescription equal to that limit.
b
NNT: Number needed to treat = RD−1, interpreted as the number of patients needed to be impacted by the limit to reduce one case of prolonged opioid use.
c
# of Reduced Cases = (# of surgeries above cutoff / NNT).