Figure 2.

Prognostic performance of published clinical prediction rules for incident TB through 15 months follow-up versus the interferon-γ release assay and RISK11 transcriptomic signature

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves comparing prognostic performance (area under the curve, AUC, with 95% CI) for incident TB diagnosed on one or more liquid culture-positive or Xpert MTB/RIF-positive sputum samples through 15 months of follow-up of (a) the RISK11 transcriptomic signature versus the Periskope-TB prognostic tool and interferon-γ release assay (IGRA), and (b) the RISK11 transcriptomic signature versus the Hanifa2017 and Baik2020 clinical prediction scores (intended for diagnosis). The shaded areas represent the 95% CIs. The solid box depicts the optimal criteria (90% sensitivity and 90% specificity) and the dashed box depicts the minimal criteria (75% sensitivity and 75% specificity) set out in the WHO Target Product Profile for an incipient TB test.²⁹