Table 3.

Associations of absolute change in cardiac biomarkers over 2 years with risk of incident heart failure

Cardiac Biomarker		Unadjusted		Model 1		Model 2
	N at risk (N events)	HR (95% CI)	p-value	HR (95% CI)	p-value	HR (95% CI)	p-value
Absolute change in NT-proBNP (pg/mL)
≤ −11.4	196 (41)	1.91 (1.22, 2.99)	0.005	1.68 (0.99, 2.85)	0.05	1.51 (0.88, 2.59)	0.13
−11.3 – 232	382 (47)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 232	185 (47)	2.61 (1.69, 4.05)	< 0.0001	1.94 (1.15, 3.27)	0.01	1.79 (1.06, 3.04)	0.03
Baseline NT-proBNP		N/A		NA		1.19 (1.03, 1.37)	0.02
Absolute change in hsTNT (ng/ml)
≤ −0.201	195 (35)	1.33 (0.85, 2.09)	0.21	1.12 (0.66, 1.92)	0.67	1.04 (0.60, 1.80)	0.88
−0.20 – 10.1	391 (57)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 10.1	191 (43)	1.85 (1.20, 2.85)	0.005	1.42 (0.86, 2.34)	0.17	1.28 (0.76, 2.15)	0.36
Baseline hsTnT		N/A		N/A		1.17 (0.99,1.38)	0.06
Absolute change in GDF-15 (pg/mL)
≤ −96.8	182 (33)	1.33 (0.83, 2.12)	0.23	1.15 (0.66, 2.00)	0.62	0.95 (0.52, 1.72)	0.87
−96.7 – 532	357 (49)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 532	184 (49)	2.56 (1.67, 3.94)	< 0.0001	1.27 (0.74, 2.17)	0.38	1.26 (0.74, 2.15)	0.40
Baseline GDF-15		N/A		N/A		1.28 (1.01, 1.61)	0.04
Absolute change in Galectin-3 (ng/ml)
≤ −0.405	194 (32)	1.03 (0.66, 1.63)	0.89	0.84 (0.49, 1.45)	0.54	0.66 (0.36, 1.24)	0.20
−0.404 – 6.95	405 (64)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 6.95	187 (42)	1.72 (1.13, 2.64)	0.01	0.90 (0.53, 1.53)	0.70	0.94 (0.55, 1.59)	0.81
Baseline galectin-3		N/A		N/A		1.25 (0.97-1.61)	0.08
Absolute change in SST-2 (ng/ml)
≤ −3.78	196 (40)	1.85 (1.18, 2.90)	0.007	1.93 (1.11, 3.35)	0.02	1.66 (0.91, 3.04)	0.10
−3.77 – 3.37	373 (49)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 3.37	203 (48)	2.35 (1.52, 3.62)	0.0001	1.87 (1.11, 3.13)	0.02	1.89 (1.13, 3.16)	0.02
Baseline sST2		N/A		N/A		1.14 (0.94, 1.39)	0.19

Model 1: Year 2 age, sex, race, site, diabetes, CVD, smoking, 24h urinary protein, eGFR, SBP, BMI, LDL, HDL

Model 2: Model 1 + baseline biomarker*