Table 4.

Associations of absolute change in cardiac biomarkers over two years with incident atrial fibrillation

Cardiac Biomarker		Unadjusted		Model 1		Model 2
	N at risk (N events)	HR (95% CI)	p-value	HR (95% CI)	p-value	HR (95% CI)	p-value
Absolute change in NT-proBNP (pg/mL)
≤ −11.4	191 (27)	1.34 (0.80, 2.23)	0.26	1.25 (0.71, 2.20)	0.44	1.19 (0.67, 2.09)	0.56
−11.3 – 232	373 (44)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 232	183 (47)	2.87 (1.83, 4.49)	< 0.0001	2.43 (1.44, 4.09)	0.0009	2.32 (1.37, 3.93)	0.002
Baseline NT-proBNP		N/A		N/A		1.14 (0.96, 1.36)	0.13
Absolute change in hsTNT (ng/ml)
≤ −0.201	186 (23)	0.79 (0.48, 1.30)	0.35	0.88 (0.51, 1.51)	0.63	0.79 (0.45, 1.38)	0.42
−0.20 – 10.1	392 (66)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 10.1	183 (29)	1.13 (0.71, 1.80)	0.61	1.09 (0.64, 1.86)	0.76	0.98 (0.56, 1.71)	0.94
Baseline hsTnT		N/A		N/A		1.21 (1.00, 1.47)	0.05
Absolute change in GDF-15 (pg/mL)
≤ −96.8	183 (36)	1.42 (0.89, 2.25)	0.14	1.15 (0.69, 1.93)	0.59	1.06 (0.61, 1.83)	0.84
−96.7 – 532	350 (50)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 532	174 (29)	1.48 (0.91, 2.41)	0.11	0.96 (0.55, 1.68)	0.89	0.95 (0.55, 1.66)	0.86
Baseline GDF-15		N/A		N/A		1.15 (0.89, 1.48)	0.29
Absolute change in Galectin-3 (ng/ml)
≤ −0.405	193 (24)	0.71 (0.43, 1.16)	0.17	0.74 (0.43, 1.29)	0.29	0.55 (0.29, 1.05)	0.07
−0.404 – 6.95	402 (68)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 6.95	176 (31)	1.23 (0.78, 1.95)	0.38	1.18 (0.69, 1.99)	0.55	1.22 (0.72, 2.07)	0.46
Baseline Galectin-3		N/A		N/A		1.30 (1.30, 1.69)	0.05
Absolute change in sST-2 (ng/ml)
≤ −3.78	201 (46)	2.22 (1.43, 3.43)	0.0004	2.55 (1.53, 4.26)	0.0004	2.43 (1.39, 4.22)	0.002
−3.77 – 3.37	372 (48)	1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)		1.0 (Ref.)
> 3.37	185 (29)	1.42 (0.87, 2.33)	0.16	1.14 (0.65, 1.99)	0.66	1.14 (0.65, 2.00)	0.65
Baseline sST2		N/A		N/A		1.05 (0.86, 1.29)	0.64

Model 1: Year 2 age, sex, race, site, diabetes, CVD, smoking, 24h urinary protein, eGFR, SBP, BMI, LDL, HDL

Model 2: Model 1 + baseline biomarker