Table 4. Model performance using AUC (95% confidence interval), calibration-in-the-large (α), calibration slope (β) for each model considered at both sites.

Each row after ‘Present patient’ includes the Present patient component.

	Auc (95% CI)	α	β
Present patient	0.744 (0.651–0.836)	–0.212 (−0.264–-0.16)	1.250 (1.171–1.329)
Viral seasonality	0.754 (0.665–0.843)	–0.393 (−0.455–-0.331)	1.287 (1.207–1.367)
Climate	0.680 (0.583–0.778)	–0.115 (−0.191–-0.038)	0.940 (0.840–1.039)
Historical patient	0.702 (0.603–0.800)	0.036 (−0.031–0.102)	1.063 (0.943–1.184)
Recent patient	0.737 (0.671–0.793)	–0.253 (−0.287–-0.22)	1.165 (1.12–1.21)