Table.
Difference between not wearing face masks and maintaining face mask use when achieving target vaccination coverages at different dates with different vaccine efficacies
| Total SARS-CoV-2 infections (per 100 000 people) | Hospital admissions and treatment (per 100 000 people) | Deaths (per 100 000 people) | QALYs lost (per 100 000 people) | Direct medical costs (in millions of US$ per 100 000 people) | Productivity losses (in millions of US$ per 100 000 people) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% vaccination coverage achieved by Jan 1, 2022, with 70% vaccine efficacy to prevent infection | ||||||
| No face mask use | 4365·4 (4317·5–4391·4) | 103·8 (100·7–106·8) | 12·2 (11·5–12·7) | 134·1 (105·6–166·0) | 3·8 (3·6–4·0) | 12·4 (10·0–14·5) |
| Using face masks until reaching the target vaccination coverage | 2473·4 (2342·3–2575·1) | 60·4 (57·7–63·0) | 7·1 (6·7–7·5) | 76·1 (59·0–93·3) | 3·1 (2·9–3·3) | 7·2 (6·0–8·6) |
| Using face masks for 1 month after reaching target vaccination coverage | 2300·4 (2209·3–2371·2) | 56·8 (54·3–59·0) | 6·6 (6·2–7·0) | 72·2 (56·0–89·1) | 3·1 (2·9–3·3) | 6·9 (5·6–8·0) |
| 70% vaccination coverage achieved by March 1, 2022, with 50% vaccine efficacy to prevent infection | ||||||
| No face mask use | 15 526·6 (14 409·9–16 540·3) | 294·0 (273·0–317·1) | 34·3 (31·8–37·0) | 388·7 (311·1–476·5) | 7·1 (6·7–7·5) | 40·6 (33·9–49·6) |
| Using face masks until reaching the target vaccination coverage | 6486·4 (6275·3–6729·1) | 130·7 (125·1–136·6) | 15·2 (14·4–16·1) | 167·2 (131·4–210·4) | 4·3 (4·1–4·5) | 18·0 (14·9–21·4) |
| Using face masks for 1 month after reaching target vaccination coverage | 6162·2 (5962·5–6385·0) | 124·3 (118·8–130·2) | 14·6 (13·7–15·4) | 160·3 (128·1–200·4) | 4·2 (4·0–4·4) | 16·8 (14·0–20·2) |
| 80% vaccination coverage achieved by March 1, 2022, with 90% vaccine efficacy to prevent infection | ||||||
| No face mask use | 1689·8 (1674·5–1721·9) | 51·9 (50·4–53·5) | 6·0 (5·8–6·4) | 64·1 (49·4–81·0) | 4·5 (4·1–4·9) | 5·9 (5·0–6·9) |
| Using face masks until reaching the target vaccination coverage | 1210·1 (1191·0–1239·0) | 37·1 (36·0–38·4) | 4·3 (4·1–4·5) | 46·1 (35·8–58·5) | 4·3 (3·9–4·6) | 4·6 (3·9–5·4) |
| Using face masks for 1 month after reaching target vaccination coverage | 1208·0 (1189·1–1234·0) | 37·1 (35·8–38·4) | 4·3 (4·1–4·5) | 45·8 (36·4–58·0) | 4·2 (3·9–4·6) | 4·6 (3·9–5·5) |
| 80% vaccination coverage achieved by March 1, 2022, with 70% vaccine efficacy to prevent infection | ||||||
| No face mask use | 4091·2 (4038·8–4119·0) | 95·4 (92·3–98·5) | 11·1 (10·6–11·7) | 121·3 (95·5–151·1) | 5·2 (4·9–5·6) | 12·1 (9·9–14·4) |
| Using face masks until reaching the target vaccination coverage | 2150·3 (2104·1–2195·5) | 52·9 (51·1–54·8) | 6·2 (5·9–6·5) | 68·0 (52·2–84·4) | 4·5 (4·1–4·9) | 7·0 (5·9–8·4) |
| Using face masks for 1 month after reaching target vaccination coverage | 2138·3 (2089·1–2184·8) | 52·9 (51·0–54·5) | 6·1 (5·9–6·5) | 67·3 (54·1–84·7) | 4·5 (4·1–4·9) | 7·0 (5·9–8·3) |
| 80% vaccination coverage achieved by July 1, 2022, with 50% vaccine efficacy to prevent infection | ||||||
| No face mask use | 15 646·6 (14 536·2–16 743·6) | 299·6 (275·5–319·3) | 34·7 (31·9–37·5) | 388·6 (306·6–481·5) | 8·7 (8·2–9·2) | 41·9 (34·3–50·5) |
| Using face masks until reaching the target vaccination coverage | 6004·9 (5786·5–6258·1) | 122·5 (116·8–128·8) | 14·3 (13·5–15·2) | 156·4 (125·6–197·0) | 5·7 (5·3–6·0) | 17·1 (14·1–20·4) |
| Using face masks for 1 month after reaching target vaccination coverage | 5984·0 (5780·2–6234·5) | 122·4 (116·9–128·4) | 14·3 (13·4–15·1) | 160·7 (128·5–198·4) | 5·7 (5·3–6·1) | 16·9 (13·9–20·3) |
Data are presented as median (IQR). The date at which vaccination coverage is achieved occurs 2 weeks after vaccination to account for the 2 weeks that it might take for the full onset of immune protection. Results are the number of cases, clinical, and economic outcomes occurring from October, 2021, to December, 2022.