Table 3.
Measles deaths averted due to vaccination for 112 countries across 2000 to 2030, assuming a time-varying case fatality ratio (CFR) in “no-vaccination” scenario and percent reduction compared to no vaccination
| Model | Scenario | Time-varying period | Deaths averted (millions) 2000–2018 | Deaths averted (millions) 2019–2030 | Deaths averted (millions) 2000–2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | Scenario 0 | NA | 29.3 | 26.8 | 56.1 |
| 77.7% | 96.8% | 85.8% | |||
| Scenario 1 | 2000–2018 | 45.4 (16.9–114.9) | 26.5 (8.1–81.8) | 71.9 (25.1–196.8) | |
| 81.4% (72.8–86.6%) | 97.9% (97.1–98.4%) | 86.8% (79.2–91.2%) | |||
| Scenario 2 | 2000–2030 | 45.4 (16.9–114.9) | 20.5 (5.3–71.4) | 65.9 (22.2–189.1) | |
| 81.4% (72.8–86.6%) | 98.0% (96.9–98.5%) | 85.9% (77.4–90.9%) | |||
| DynaMICE | Scenario 0 | NA | 33.3 | 27.2 | 60.5 |
| 88.3% | 96.9% | 92.0% | |||
| Scenario 1 | 2000–2018 | 42.6 (17.7–103.8) | 24.5 (9.5–70.0) | 67.1 (27.3–173.9) | |
| 89.2% (85.3–91.8%) | 98.5% (98.5–98.6%) | 92.4% (89.5–94.4%) | |||
| Scenario 2 | 2000–2030 | 42.6 (17.7–103.8) | 19.4 (7.1–63.0) | 62.0 (24.8–166.9) | |
| 89.2% (85.3–91.8%) | 98.6% (98.6–98.7%) | 91.9% (88.7–94.3%) |
Note: The first line for each scenario presents measles deaths averted due to measles vaccination compared to no vaccination for 112 countries aggregated across 2000 to 2030 in millions. The second line for each scenario presents the associated percent reduction in measles deaths compared to no vaccination. The 95% uncertainty intervals across 1000 draws of CFR model parameters are included in parentheses for both measles deaths averted and percent reductions. PSU Pennsylvania State University model, DynaMICE DynaMICE model developed at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine