Table 3.
Model selection for the best time series model explaining the median number of Aedes aegypti eggs per ovitrap at Puntarenas City, Costa Rica
| Variables (Lag) | AIC |
|---|---|
| Null model: Autoregressive (1), Seasonal Autoregressive (3) | 588.92 |
| Full model: Autoregressive (1), Seasonal Autoregressive (3), MODIS-Temperature (7), MODIS-SD Temperature (6), MODIS-NDVI (8), MODIS-EVI (8), Landsat 8-Temperature (6), Landsat 8-SD Temperature (5), Landsat 8-NDVI (2), Landsat 8-EVI (6) | 574.96 |
| Autoregressive (1), Seasonal Autoregressive (3), MODIS-Temperature (7), MODIS-SD Temperature (6), MODIS-NDVI (8), MODIS-EVI (8), Landsat 8-Temperature (6), Landsat 8-NDVI (2), Landsat 8-EVI (6) | 573.25 |
| Autoregressive (1), Seasonal Autoregressive (3), MODIS-SD Temperature (6), MODIS-NDVI (8), MODIS-EVI (8), Landsat 8-Temperature (6), Landsat 8-NDVI (2), Landsat 8-EVI (6) | 571.62 |
| Autoregressive (1), Seasonal Autoregressive (3), MODIS-SD Temperature (6), MODIS-EVI (8), Landsat 8-Temperature (6), Landsat 8-NDVI (2), Landsat 8-EVI (6) | 570.99 |
| Autoregressive (1), Seasonal Autoregressive (3), MODIS-SD Temperature (6), Landsat 8-Temperature (6), Landsat 8-NDVI (2), Landsat 8-EVI (6) | 570.03 |
| Autoregressive (1), Seasonal Autoregressive (3), MODIS-SD Temperature (6), Landsat 8-Temperature (6), Landsat 8-EVI (6) | 569.90 |
| Autoregressive (1), Seasonal Autoregressive (3), MODIS-SD Temperature (6), Landsat 8-EVI (6) | 569.90a |
| Autoregressive (1), MODIS-SD Temperature (6), Landsat 8-EVI (6) | 571.18a |
Notes: AIC indicates the Akaike information criterion for each model. AIC is minimized by the best model, which is presented in bold. Lag indicates the time lag (in epidemiological weeks) for the correlation between arbovirus case number and the environmental variables considered.
a
Selected as best model due to the lack of a significant difference with the model minimizing AIC, through a Chi-square likelihood ratio test (χ2 = 1.641, df = 1, P > 0.200).