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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Mar 9.
Published in final edited form as: ALTEX. 2022;39(1):3–29. doi: 10.14573/altex.2201081

Tab. 2:

Key questions addressed in ProbRA and associated tools

Question Tools
What can go wrong? Screen important initiators. Master logic diagrams (MLD) or failure modes and effects analyses (FMEA); in toxicology, these would be relevant exposures or molecular initiating events (MIE) triggered within the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework
What are the adverse consequences? Deterministic analyses that describe the phenomena that could occur along the path of the accident (here hazard) scenario. In toxicology, this can be understood as the exposure-to-hazard path, more recently defined as AOP with their key events (KE).
What is the probability of adverse consequences? Boolean logic methods for model development (e.g., event tree analysis (ETA) or event sequence diagrams (ESD) analysis and deductive methods like fault tree analysis (FTA)) and by probabilistic or statistical methods for the quantification portion of the model analysis (deductive logic tools like fault trees or inductive logic tools like reliability block diagrams (RBD) and FMEA). The final result of a ProbRA is given in the form of a risk curve and the associated uncertainties. This is evidently least translated to toxicology.