Table 2.
Model-Predicted Outcomes and Estimated Proportion of Change Explained by Patient Characteristics
| Outcome and Model | Probability of outcome predicted by 2006–2007 model | Probability of outcome predicted by 2015–2016 model | Percent of change explained by patient characteristics* | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Year | |||||
| 2006 | 2016 | 2006 | 2016 | 2006–2007 model | 2015–2016 model | |
| 30-day mortality | ||||||
| Observed | 9.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 7.2% | ||
| Complete model | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 47% | 45% |
| Physiologic model | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 44% | 39% |
| Comorbidity model | 9.5% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | −35% | −30% |
| 90-day mortality | ||||||
| Observed | 16.4% | 12.3% | 16.4% | 12.3% | ||
| Complete model | 16.5% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 32% | 34% |
| Physiologic model | 16.7% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 68% | 39% |
| Comorbidity model | 16.3% | 17.2% | 11.7% | 12.8% | −28% | −32% |
| 1-year mortality | ||||||
| Observed | 29.0% | 23.8% | 29.0% | 23.8% | ||
| Complete model | 29.1% | 28.1% | 24.7% | 23.6% | 17% | 19% |
| Physiologic model | 29.2% | 27.5% | 25.4% | 23.7% | 31% | 31% |
| Comorbidity model | 28.8% | 31.0% | 21.3% | 23.7% | −44% | −47% |
| Hospitalization | ||||||
| Observed | 70.6% | 62.7% | 70.6% | 62.7% | ||
| Complete model | 71.0% | 69.2% | 65.1% | 62.5% | 21% | 31% |
| Physiologic model | 71.1% | 68.6% | 65.6% | 62.6% | 29% | 36% |
| Comorbidity model | 62.6% | 62.8% | 61.0% | 62.6% | −12% | −79% |
*Negative values denote that the model predicted an increase in the outcome