Table 1. Mean weekly nonfatal overdose counts and key interrupted time series findings for Maryland state models, Maryland regional models, and Washington DC models.
| Immediate Impact of PHOs? | Sustained Impact of PHOs? | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean weekly count: nonfatal overdoses | Difference in mean level change before vs. after March for control vs. Covid yeara | Difference in weekly slopes before vs. after March for control vs. Covid yearb | Key Findings | ||||||
| Region | Before March | After March | B | 95% CI | p | B | 95% CI | p | |
| MD State | -9.21 | -47.56 to 29.15 | .635 | 2.36 | 0.65 to 4.06 | .007 | Similar pre-March decrease both years; Steeper post-March increase in 2020 | ||
| Covid timeseriesc | 129.05 | 159.18 | |||||||
| Control timeseriesd | 175.41 | 164.15 | |||||||
| MD: Western | 0.73 | -2.80 to 4.27 | .682 | 0.05 | -0.25 to 0.34 | .759 | Very similar post-March increases both years | ||
| Covid timeseries | 7.22 | 7.09 | |||||||
| Control timeseries | 7.39 | 6.63 | |||||||
| MD: Capital | 2.27 | -4.11 to 8.65 | .482 | 0.31 | -0.02 to 0.63 | .066 | Post-March decrease in 2019; Persistent rate in 2020 | ||
| Covid timeseries | 19.10 | 21.77 | |||||||
| Control timeseries | 19.14 | 21.28 | |||||||
| MD: Central | -12.94 | -39.11 to 13.23 | .329 | 1.47 | 0.15 to 2.79 | .029 | Similar pre-March decrease both years; Steeper post-March increase in 2020 | ||
| Covid timeseries | 90.00 | 111.27 | |||||||
| Control timeseries | 131.14 | 121.23 | |||||||
| MD: Southern | -0.21 | -3.30 to 2.88 | .895 | 0.23 | 0.05 to 0.40 | .010 | Similar pre-March decrease both years; New post-March increase in 2020 | ||
| Covid timeseries | 3.55 | 5.05 | |||||||
| Control timeseries | 6.16 | 4.88 | |||||||
| MD: Eastern Shore | 1.01 | -5.08 to 7.10 | .744 | 0.26 | -0.13 to 0.66 | .189 | Graphical suggestion of steeper post-March increase in 2020 | ||
| Covid timeseries | 8.75 | 13.23 | |||||||
| Control timeseries | 11.18 | 9.85 | |||||||
| Washington, DC | -8.20 | -19.50 to 3.10 | .153 | -0.07 | -0.62 to 0.48 | .814 | No steeper post-March increase in 2020 | ||
| Covid timeseriese | 45.94 | 49.07 | |||||||
| Control timeseriesf | 37.80 | 47.21 | |||||||
a CovidYear X AfterMarch interaction term in multivariable regression models.
b CovidYear X AfterMarch X WeekSlope interaction term in multivariable regression models.
c MD Covid timeseries: July 1, 2019 to September 7, 2020.
d MD Control timeseries: July 2, 2018 to September 2, 2019.
e DC Covid Timeseries: August 5, 2019 to October 25, 2020.
f DC Control Timeseries: August 6, 2018 to October 20, 2019. MD = Maryland. PHOs = Public Health Orders. Washington DC models include quarter-year dummy variables to adjust for seasonality.