Table 5.
Economic growth and pandemic containment effectiveness (PCE) for deaths: robustness checks.
| Dependent variable | Quarterly GDP growth rate |
Annual GDP growth rate |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Sample period | Q2 | Q3 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q1 |
| PCE Score (X 100) | 0.101*** | 0.064** | 0.006 | 0.054*** | 0.047*** | -0.013 |
| (2.747) | (2.437) | (0.328) | (3.189) | (2.863) | (-0.656) | |
| economic stimulus spending | 0.160 | 0.161 | 0.001 | -0.062 | ||
| (0.358) | (0.724) | (0.005) | (-0.380) | |||
| economic support index | -0.005 | -0.004 | -0.025* | -0.033** | ||
| (-0.154) | (-0.203) | (-1.854) | (-2.281) | |||
| GDP per capita | 0.924 | 0.272 | -0.251 | |||
| (0.831) | (0.350) | (-0.594) | ||||
| Gini coefficient | -0.456*** | -0.174* | -0.023 | |||
| (-2.884) | (-1.936) | (-0.541) | ||||
| total population | 0.275 | 0.095 | -0.186 | |||
| (0.305) | (0.146) | (-0.606) | ||||
| population 65+ | -0.390** | -0.178 | -0.071 | |||
| (-2.499) | (-1.477) | (-1.277) | ||||
| international trade | 0.558 | 0.353 | -0.268 | |||
| (1.006) | (1.007) | (-0.869) | ||||
| government expenditure | -0.031 | -0.007 | -0.112 | |||
| (-0.130) | (-0.040) | (-1.418) | ||||
| Specification | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS |
| Sample countries | CEIC | IMF | ||||
| Number of observations | 73 | 70 | 70 | 89 | 85 | 89 |
| R2 | 0.316 | 0.215 | 0.199 | 0.150 | 0.117 | 0.004 |
Notes: 1. t-values are reported in parentheses. The stars *, ** and *** indicate the significance at 10%, 5% and 1%. 2. PCE scores of Quarters 2 and 3 of 2020 in columns (1),(2) and (4),(5) are determined by Weeks 15–16 and Weeks 27–28 after the first confirmed death, respectively. 3. PCE scores of Quarter 1 of 2020 in columns (3) and (6) are measured by Weeks 3–4 after the first confirmed death. 4. Annual GDP growth data retrieved from the IMF database including more countries is used in columns (4)–(6). 5. The PCE scores in columns (4)–(6) are still on a quarterly basis.