Table A.14.
Economic growth and infections.
| Dependent Variable | Quarterly GDP growth rate |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |
| Sample period | Q2 | Q3 | Q2-Q3 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q2 | Q3 | Q2-Q3 | Q1 |
| Infections per million population | -1.105* | -1.198*** | 5.063*** | -0.365* | -1.576** | -1.400*** | -1.171 | -1.155*** | 5.096*** | -0.020 |
| (-1.914) | (-3.439) | (9.683) | (-1.792) | (-2.309) | (-3.937) | (-1.568) | (-2.889) | (5.978) | (-0.079) | |
| economic stimulus spending | 0.411 | 0.244 | 0.108 | 0.083 | -0.118 | 0.159 | ||||
| (1.036) | (1.323) | (0.210) | (0.362) | (-0.252) | (0.794) | |||||
| economic support index | -0.025 | -0.015 | -0.017 | -0.020 | -0.020 | 0.016 | ||||
| (-0.792) | (-0.814) | (-0.519) | (-0.854) | (-0.494) | (0.520) | |||||
| GDP per capita | 1.926 | 1.230 | ||||||||
| (1.411) | (1.589) | |||||||||
| Gini coefficient | -0.397** | -0.115 | ||||||||
| (-2.581) | (-1.116) | |||||||||
| total population | -0.288 | -0.163 | ||||||||
| (-0.315) | (-0.267) | |||||||||
| population 65+ | -0.483*** | -0.231** | ||||||||
| (-2.768) | (-2.110) | |||||||||
| international trade | 0.619 | 0.312 | ||||||||
| (1.188) | (1.028) | |||||||||
| government expenditure | -0.026 | 0.024 | ||||||||
| (-0.111) | (0.150) | |||||||||
| Specification | OLS | OLS | FD | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | FD | OLS |
| Sample countries | CEIC | OECD+G20+Singapore | ||||||||
| Number of observations | 73 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 73 | 70 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
| R2 | 0.084 | 0.187 | 0.480 | 0.047 | 0.283 | 0.279 | 0.071 | 0.134 | 0.485 | 0.000 |
Notes: 1. t-values are reported in parentheses. The stars *, ** and *** indicate the significance at 10%, 5% and 1%. 2. Infection rate of Quarters 2 and 3 of 2020 in columns (1)–(3) and (5)–(9) are determined by the averaged infection rate of Calendar Weeks 15–16 and Weeks 27–28, respectively. 3. Infection rate of Quarter 1 of 2020 in columns (4) and (10) are measured by the averaged infection rate of Calendar Weeks 3–4. 4. Data used in columns (7)–(10) exclude more countries with smaller size in Asia, South America, and Africa. 5. For a full list of countries used in the regressions in columns (7)–(10), see footnote 22 of the text.