Figure 3.

Moderate restrictions (Australia; progressive vaccination rollout; suppression threshold: 400 cases): a comparison between simulation scenarios and actual epidemic curves up to November 13, under moderate interaction strengths (CI_c = CI_w = 0.25, HQ_c = HQ_w = 0.25, SD_c = 0.25, SC = 0.5). A moving average of the actual time series for (A) (log scale) incidence (crosses), and (B) cumulative incidence (circles). Traces corresponding to social distancing levels SD∈{0.4, 0.5, 0.6} are shown for the period between 16 June and 13 November, as averages over 10 runs (colored profiles). 95% confidence intervals are shown as shaded areas. For each SD level, minimal and maximal traces, per time point, are shown with dotted lines. Peaks formed during the suppression period for each SD profile are identified with coloured dashed lines. Each SD intervention, coupled with school closures, begins with the start of initial restrictions. The alignment between simulated days and actual dates may slightly differ across separate runs. Case isolation and home quarantine are in place from the outset.