Fig. 4.

Results from simultaneous model fitting to SARI new cases and new deaths data, for each of the proposed model versions: the model with percolation (blue) and the standard model (green), using the same parameter sets, apart from the fitted parameters ($p$, $startdate$, $T_{perc}$, $h_{steep}$), and the standard model version with additional 30% adherence to all NPIs (red) (also fitted to data); dots represent data points from the SIVEP-Gripe database (15 March to 31 August 2020) (Datasus, 2020); and shaded areas represent bootstrapped confidence intervals based on parameter uncertainty from the fitting (too thin to see for the green curve). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)