Table 1.

Fitted parameter values and AIC evaluated for each of the model versions, as they were fitted to the same dataset of weekly SARI cases and deaths for São Paulo, which consisted of 23 data points.

Model	$p$	$startdate$	$h_{steep}$	$T_{perc}$	AIC	$\Delta$AIC
Standard	0.0294	2020-01-15	–	–	−756	191
Standard + 30% NPI adherence	0.0401	2020-01-30	–	–	−793	154
Percolation	0.0461	2020-01-30	4.83	0.516	−947	0

$\Delta$AIC is the difference between the AIC for each model and the minimum overall AIC.