TABLE 2.
Performance of predictive models in classifying patients with stable cognition from patients with declining cognition
| Model | Sample | Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | Specificity, % (95% CI) | PPV, % (95% CI) | NPV, % (95% CI) | AUC | Base rate, % a |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR |
EXPEDITION (training) |
67.8 (60.8–74.3) |
59.1 (62.4–66.6) |
65.8 (61.4–70.3) |
61.3 (55.6–66.8) |
0.68 | 53.7 |
|
EXPEDITION2 (validation) |
64.2 (57.4–70.6) |
53.3 (45.8–60.8) |
62.2 (57.7–66.4) |
55.5 (49.9+1.0) |
0.62 | 54.4 | |
| ELD |
EXPEDITION (training) |
71.4 (64.5–77.6) |
55.0 (47.2–65.6) |
64.8 (60.4–69.0) |
62.4 (56.2–68.3) |
0.66 | 53.7 |
|
EXPEDITION2 (validation) |
68.4 (61.7–74.5) |
51.7 (44.1–59.2) |
62.8 (58.6–66.8) |
57.7 (51.8–63.5) |
0.62 | 54.4 |
Base rate of cognitive decline (change of > 0 from baseline ADAS‐cog score) in the sample using longitudinal data at both 15 and 18 months.
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; ELD, ensemble linear discriminant model; LR, logistic regression; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.