Table 3.
Predictions of demand by region and diagnosis in 5 years intervals. In each cell the numbers give the estimated demand in the SN scenarios L = low aging, M = reference scenario, H = high ageing, and M(F) = reference scenario with frozen stroke incidence at 2020-level. Reference scenario estimates are in bold. (For year = 2020 there is no scenario) For each health region, the currently available beds are provided in the column ‘Available’.
| Year | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | Available | M | L/M/H/M(F) | L/M/H/M(F) | L/M/H/M(F) | L/M/H/M(F) |
| Norway | 361 | 302 | 300/303/306/340 | 302/308/315/386 | 303/314/324/435 | 301/316/331/480 |
| South east | 182 | 167 | 158/166/168/188 | 168/171/175/213 | 169/175/181/241 | 169/177/185/267 |
| West | 68 | 58 | 58/59/59/66 | 59/60/61/75 | 60/62/64/85 | 60/62/65/94 |
| Middle | 51 | 43 | 43/43/44/49 | 43/43/45/55 | 43/44/46/62 | 42/44/46/67 |
| North | 60 | 34 | 33/33/34/38 | 33/33/34/43 | 32/33/34/47 | 31/33/34/51 |
| Diagnosis | ||||||
| IS | NA | 135 | 121/122/124/153 | 110/113/115/176 | 99/103/107/200 | 86/92/97/224 |
| SM | NA | 103 | 113/114/115/114 | 125/127/130/127 | 138/142/146/142 | 148/155/162/155 |
| ICH | NA | 34 | 35/35/36/38 | 36/37/37/43 | 36/38/39/48 | 36/38/39/53 |
| TIA | NA | 31 | 31/31/32/35 | 31/32/32/39 | 31/32/33/44 | 30/32/33/49 |