Table 2.
Changes in the estimated cumulative direct medical expenditure (DME) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of esophageal cancer in males in China according to the key parameters considered in the sensitivity analyses.
| Parameter | Changes in estimated DME, billions (%) | Changes in estimated DALYs, thousands (%) | ||||||
|
|
2030 | 2025 | 2020 | 2030 | 2025 | 2020 | ||
| Baseline value | 741.7 | 475.2 | 261.9 | 49957.5 | 35889.7 | 22037.9 | ||
| AAGRa of DME | ||||||||
|
|
0.0475 instead of 0.0432 | 33.1 (4.5) | 14.8 (3.1) | 4.9 (1.7) | NCb | NC | NC | |
|
|
0.0388 instead of 0.0432 | –32.2 (–4.3) | –14.7 (–3.1) | –4.9 (–1.9) | NC | NC | NC | |
| 5-year survival rate | ||||||||
|
|
0.208 instead of 0.199 | 12.3 (1.7) | 7.2 (1.5) | 3.3 (1.3) | –130.8 (–0.3) | –139.3 (–0.4) | –135.9 (–0.6) | |
|
|
0.190 instead of 0.199 | –12.4 (–1.7) | -7.3 (-1.5) | –3.4 (–1.3) | 131.0 (0.3) | 139.9 (0.4) | 137.5 (0.6) | |
| Risk ratio of all-cause mortality | ||||||||
|
|
1.47 instead of 1.33 | –2.7 (–0.4) | –1.2 (–0.3) | –0.4 (–0.2) | –146.0 (–0.3) | –71.5 (–0.2) | –24.4 (–0.1) | |
|
|
1.20 instead of 1.33 | 2.8 (0.4) | 1.2 (0.3) | 0.4 (0.2) | 153.2 (0.3) | 74.9 (0.2) | 25.5 (0.1) | |
| Birth rate | ||||||||
|
|
High estimatesc | 2.6 (0.4) | 0.3 (0.1) | NC | 107.2 (0.2) | 12.14 (0.0) | NC | |
|
|
Low estimatesc | –2.6 (–0.4) | –0.3 (–0.1) | NC | –107.6 (–0.2) | -12.2 (0.0) | NC | |
| Sex ratio of the total population | ||||||||
|
|
High estimatesd | –0.1 (0.0) | –0.01 (0.0) | NC | –5 (0.0) | –0.5 (0.0) | NC | |
|
|
Low estimatesd | 0.1 (0.0) | NC | NC | 5.0 (0.0) | 0.6 (0.0) | NC | |
| Risk ratio of infant mortality | ||||||||
|
|
1.04 instead of 0.95 | NC | NC | NC | –1.2 (0.0) | 0.7 (0.0) | –0.2 (0.0) | |
|
|
0.85 instead of 0.94 | NC | NC | NC | 1.5 (0.0) | –0.6 (0.0) | 0.2 (0.0) | |
| Disability weight | ||||||||
|
|
0.435 instead of 0.395 | NC | NC | NC | 393.2 (0.8) | 284.0 (0.8) | 176.1 (0.8) | |
|
|
0.356 instead of 0.395 | NC | NC | NC | –393.2 (–0.8) | –284.0 (–0.8) | –176.1 (–0.8) | |
| All-cause mortality | ||||||||
|
|
High estimatese | NC | NC | NC | NC | NC | NC | |
|
|
Low estimatese | NC | NC | NC | NC | NC | NC | |
aAAGR: average annual growth rate.
bNC: no changes in estimated costs or DALYs.
cSee Table S2 in Multimedia Appendix 1.
dSee Table S3 in Multimedia Appendix 1.
eSee Table S4 in Multimedia Appendix 1.