Table 3.
Changes in the estimated cumulative costs and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of esophageal cancer (EC) in females in China according to the key parameters considered in the sensitivity analyses.
| Parameter | Changes in estimated cost, billions(%) | Changes in estimated DALYs, thousands (%) | ||||||||||
|
|
2030 | 2025 | 2020 | 2030 | 2025 | 2020 | ||||||
| Baseline value | 279.5 | 191.1 | 111.7 | 17687.7 | 13382.4 | 8628.1 | ||||||
| AAGRa of DMEb | ||||||||||||
|
|
0.0475 instead of 0.0432 | 11.8 (4.2) | 5.8 (3.0) | 2.0 (1.8) | NCc | NC | NC | |||||
|
|
0.0388 instead of 0.0432 | –11.4 (–4.1) | –5.7 (–3.0) | –2.0 (–1.8) | NC | NC | NC | |||||
| AAPCd of EC incidence | ||||||||||||
|
|
–0.016 instead of –0.025 | 18.3 (6.5) | 7.7 (4.0) | 2.1 (1.9) | 873.3 (5.0) | 402.4 (3.0) | 109.1 (1.3) | |||||
|
|
–0.035 instead of –0.025 | –18.4 (–6.6) | –8.0 (–4.2) | –2.2 (–2.0) | –891.9 (–5.0) | –422.9 (–3.2) | –117.9 (–1.4) | |||||
| AAPC of EC mortality | ||||||||||||
|
|
–0.011 instead of –0.027 | NC | NC | NC | 0.9 (0.0) | 0.4 (0.0) | 0.1 (0.0) | |||||
|
|
–0.042 instead of –0.027 | NC | NC | NC | –0.8 (0.0) | –0.3 (0.0) | –0.1 (0.0) | |||||
| 5-year survival rate | ||||||||||||
|
|
0.208 instead of 0.199 | 6.9 (2.5) | 4.2 (2.2) | 2.0 (1.8) | –57.9 (–0.3) | –71.8 (–0.5) | –77.5 (–0.9) | |||||
|
|
0.190 instead of 0.199 | –6.4 (–2.3) | –4.0 (–2.1) | –1.9 (–1.7) | 53.3 (0.3) | 66.6 (0.5) | 72.9 (0.8) | |||||
| Risk ratio of all-cause mortality | ||||||||||||
|
|
1.47 instead of 1.33 | 1.0 (0.4) | 0.8 (0.2) | 0.2 (0.2) | 51.2 (0.3) | 27.0 (0.2) | 10.0 (0.1) | |||||
|
|
1.20 instead of 1.33 | –1.1 (–0.4) | –0.5 (–0.3) | –0.2 (–0.2) | –53.3 (–0.3) | –28.1 (–0.2) | –10.3 (–0.1) | |||||
| Birth rate | ||||||||||||
|
|
High estimatese | 0.7 (0.3) | 0.1 (0.1) | NC | 27.0 (0.2) | 3.2 (0.0) | NC | |||||
|
|
Low estimatese | –0.7 (–0.3) | –0.1 (–0.1) | NC | –27.2 (–0.2) | –3.2 (0.0) | NC | |||||
| Sex ratio of the total population | ||||||||||||
|
|
High estimatesf | NC | NC | NC | –1.2 (–0.0) | –0.1 (0.0) | NC | |||||
|
|
Low estimatesf | NC | NC | NC | 1.2 (0.0) | 0.1 (0.0) | NC | |||||
| Risk ratio of infant mortality | ||||||||||||
|
|
1.04 instead of 0.95 | NC | NC | NC | 0.4 (0.0) | 0.19 (0.0) | 0.1 (0.0) | |||||
|
|
0.85 instead of 0.94 | NC | NC | NC | –0.5 (0.0) | –0.2 (0.0) | –0.1 (0.0) | |||||
| Disability weight | ||||||||||||
|
|
0.435 instead of 0.395 | NC | NC | NC | 147.6 (0.8) | 112.3 (0.9) | 73.3 (0.9) | |||||
|
|
0.356 instead of 0.395 | NC | NC | NC | –147.6 (–0.8) | –112.3 (–0.8) | –73.3 (–0.9) | |||||
| All-cause mortality | ||||||||||||
|
|
High estimatese | NC | NC | NC | NC | NC | NC | |||||
|
|
Low estimatese | NC | NC | NC | NC | NC | NC | |||||
aAAGR: average annual growth rate.
bDME: direct medical expenditure.
cNC: no changes in estimated costs or DALYs.
dAAPC: average annual percentage change.
eSee Table S2 in Multimedia Appendix 1.
fSee Table S3 in Multimedia Appendix 1.