TABLE 3.
Model statistics for the effects of alcohol control policy, GDP and CPI on cirrhosis mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 adults, aged 15+)
| Estimated effect | Standard Error | t-value | p-value | Adjusted-R2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modelled policy effects (Total population) | 0.65 | ||||
| Intercept | 1.20 | 0.25 | 4.77 | P < .0001 | |
| GDP | 0.00064 | 0.00013 | 4.88 | P < .0001 | |
| CPI | 0.080 | 0.022 | 3.81 | P = .00019 | |
| Policy 1 (January 2008) | −1.28 | 0.28 | −4.50 | P < .0001 | |
| Policy 2 (March 2017) | −1.13 | 0.31 | −3.66 | P = .0003 | |
| Policy 3 (January 2018) | −0.42 | 0.50 | −0.85 | P = .40 | |
| Seasonality (smooth term) | P < .0001 | ||||
| ARIMA (1,1,1) | |||||
| Modelled policy effects (Men) | 0.62 | ||||
| Intercept | 1.85 | 0.36 | 5.07 | P < .0001 | |
| GDP | 0.00091 | 0.00019 | 4.69 | P < .0001 | |
| CPI | 0.14 | 0.033 | 4.31 | P < .0001 | |
| Policy 1 (January 2008) | −1.86 | 0.41 | −4.51 | P < .0001 | |
| Policy 2 (March 2017) | −1.84 | 0.50 | −3.68 | P = .00030 | |
| Policy 3 (January 2018) | −0.59 | 0.75 | −0.79 | P = .42 | |
| Seasonality (smooth term) | P < .0001 | ||||
| ARIMA (1,1,1) | |||||
| Modelled policy effects (Women) | 0.54 | ||||
| Intercept | 0.59 | 0.10 | 5.58 | P < .0001 | |
| GDP | 0.00041 | 0.000057 | 7.07 | P < .0001 | |
| CPI | 0.067 | 0.010 | 6.48 | P < .0001 | |
| Policy 1 (January 2008) | −0.72 | 0.12 | −5.90 | P < .0001 | |
| Policy 2 (March 2017) | −0.90 | 0.17 | −5.30 | P < .0001 | |
| Policy 3 (January 2018) | 0.012 | 0.23 | 0.052 | P = .96 | |
| Seasonality (smooth term) | P = .11 | ||||
| ARIMA (1,1,1) |
Abbreviations: AR, autoregressive; CPI, consumer price index, GDP, gross domestic product (in USD) per capita; I, integrated; MA, moving average, with respective coefficients (q,d,p).