Fig. 4.

A Overall economic activity over time for three baseline policy scenarios (denoted by their respective reproduction numbers, 0.1, 0.5, and 1.0). Pre-crisis economic activity is normalized to 100. B Relative costs for each policy scenario, in percentage difference to the reference scenario ($R_{\mathrm{t}}=0.53$). Economic costs are given as the aggregated loss of activity occurring as a result of the shutdown and recovery phase. The bold line indicates the baseline scenarios; the shaded grey lines indicate the results of the robustness tests. The numeric values can be found in the SI Appendix, Tab. S3