Table 1. Notation —Parameters, controls and their values.
All times are expressed in months and rates are expressed per month. Details behind model calibration are explained in B.
Symbol | Meaning | Value | Range | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|
Λ | Birth rate | [0.001, 0.003] | United Nations (2019) | |
μ −1 | Expected life span | 65∗12 | [600, 1200] | World Bank (2019) |
β | Transmission rate | 0.0166 | [0.01, 0.02] | Estimated |
σ −1 | Length of the incubation period | Perine et al. (1984) | ||
λ 1 −1 | Length of primary yaws | 3 | [3, 6] | Perine et al. (1984) |
λ 2 −1 | Length of secondary yaws | 3 | [0, 60] | Mitjà, Asiedu & Mabey (2013) |
ρ 1 −1 | Length of latency after primary yaws | 1.5 | [1, 2] | Marks et al. (2015a) |
ρ 2 −1 | Length of second latency | 30 | [1, 60] | Perine et al. (1984) |
p Y 1 Y 2 | Probability of immediate secondary yaws infection after primary yaws | 0.12 | [0.09, 0.15] | Mitjà, Asiedu & Mabey (2013) |
p Y 1 L 1 | Probability of latency period after primary yaws | 1 − pY1Y2 | ||
p Y 2 Y 3 | Probability of immediate tertiary yaws infection after secondary yaws | 0.0001 | [0, 0.0002] | Mitjà, Asiedu & Mabey (2013) |
p Y 2 L 2 | Probability of latency period after secondary yaws | 1 − pY2Y3 | ||
p L 2 Y 2 | Probability of relapsing to secondary yaws during latent period after secondary yaws | 0.9999 | [0.9998, 1] | Mitjà, Asiedu & Mabey (2013) |
p L 2 Y 3 | Probability of developing tertiary yaws during latent period | 1 − pL2Y2 | ||
τ I | Rate of treatment for the group I ∈ {E, Y1, Y2, Y3, L1, L2} | variable | See text |