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. 2022 Mar 21;5(3):e223418. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.3418

Table. Proportion of Observed Overdose Deaths in Excess of the Number Forecasted With ARIMA Models in the US From March 8, 2020, to December 31, 2020a.

Modelb Model type Total deaths observed, No. Total deaths forecasted, No. (lower and upper prediction limits)c Proportion of deaths observed to deaths forecasted (lower and upper prediction limits)c
ARIMA (7,1,10) Initial 72 643 65 386 (57 269-73 503) 1.11 (1.28-0.98)
ARIMA (9,1,6) Final 72 643 65 042 (56 778-73 306) 1.12 (1.28-0.99)

Abbreviation: ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average.

a

Data from Connecticut and North Carolina were excluded from the analysis.

b

The 2 models showed similar performance and are thus presented side by side.

c

The prediction limits are for the forecasts generated by each model.