Table 2.
Determinants of social unrest. All models are run with STATA. Model 1 is run using ordinary least squares (with the command reg) and models 2–7 using Probit estimations (with the command probit). All independent variables are lagged. Robust standard errors clustered by country in parentheses.
| dependent variables |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| index | riot | assass. | strike | guerrilla | revol. | demonst. | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| lagged DV | 0.492 | 0.964 | 1.005 | 0.946 | 1.731 | 1.797 | 0.735 |
| (0.032)*** | (0.092)*** | (0.100)*** | (0.135)*** | (0.126)*** | (0.147)*** | (0.079)*** | |
| spatial DV | 0.203 | 0.972 | 0.593 | 1.115 | 0.390 | −0.209 | 0.813 |
| (0.040)*** | (0.153)*** | (0.244)** | (0.256)*** | (0.305) | (0.218) | (0.149)*** | |
| horizontal inequality | 0.441 | 0.507 | 0.232 | 0.363 | 0.478 | 0.614 | 0.551 |
| (0.148)*** | (0.188)*** | (0.234) | (0.256) | (0.302) | (0.251)** | (0.195)*** | |
| rule of law | −0.187 | −0.216 | −0.298 | −0.022 | −0.203 | −0.139 | −0.176 |
| (0.063)*** | (0.098)** | (0.096)*** | (0.117) | (0.099)** | (0.092) | (0.079)** | |
| conformity | 0.229 | 0.049 | 0.256 | 0.263 | 0.418 | 0.338 | 0.252 |
| (0.109)** | (0.141) | (0.151)* | (0.205) | (0.177)** | (0.181)* | (0.131)* | |
| respect for institutions | −0.014 | −0.010 | −0.151 | −0.030 | 0.216 | 0.170 | −0.118 |
| (0.093) | (0.144) | (0.134) | (0.216) | (0.160) | (0.134) | (0.115) | |
| number of groups | 0.018 | 0.015 | 0.018 | 0.012 | 0.018 | 0.004 | 0.034 |
| (0.005)*** | (0.009)* | (0.009)* | (0.008) | (0.007)*** | (0.009) | (0.005)*** | |
| former British colony | .069 | 0.266 | 0.229 | 0.324 | −0.075 | −0.274 | 0.125 |
| (0.126) | (0.153)* | (0.150) | (0.177)* | (0.192) | (0.194) | (0.159) | |
| former French colony | .012 | 0.023 | 0.067 | 0.104 | 0.179 | −0.083 | −0.122 |
| (0.081) | (0.092) | (0.220) | (0.173) | (0.182) | (0.156) | (0.113) | |
| polity score | .017 | 0.011 | 0.035 | 0.044 | 0.020 | 0.004 | 0.011 |
| (0.007)** | (0.011) | (0.011)*** | (0.013)*** | (0.012)* | (0.011) | (0.009) | |
| polity score squared | −0.002 | −0.002 | −0.002 | −0.0001 | −0.004 | −0.002 | −0.003 |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.003) | (0.002) | (0.003) | (0.002) | |
| ethnic fractionalization | −0.082 | 0.010 | −0.317 | −0.502 | 0.012 | −0.118 | −0.209 |
| (0.155) | (0.235) | (0.241) | (0.326) | (0.281) | (0.253) | (0.208) | |
| GDP per capita (logged) | 0.189 | 0.231 | 0.049 | −0.015 | 0.239 | −0.101 | 0.330 |
| (0.049)*** | (0.071)*** | (0.077) | (0.089) | (0.074)*** | (0.076) | (0.063)*** | |
| growth | −0.005 | −0.003 | −0.011 | −0.008 | −0.0002 | −0.010 | −0.011 |
| (0.003) | (0.005) | (0.006)* | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.005)** | (0.005)** | |
| N | 1889 | 1889 | 1889 | 1889 | 1889 | 1889 | 1889 |
| log-Lik. | −2699.511 | −862.001 | −580.783 | −547.316 | −517.109 | −451.489 | −1035.998 |
*p < 0.1; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01.