Fig. 4. Comparison of using 4-fold criterion and using model estimates to estimate infection probabilities and relative susceptibility among age groups by simulation.

A, B Show the infection probabilities and relative susceptibility among age groups estimated by a 4-fold criterion and by our proposed approach respectively. Points and vertical lines are used to show the mean, 2.5% and 97.5% percentile of the estimates from 50 simulated epidemics based on our data with 2353 individuals. C The proportion of infected individuals in the groups with different infection probability zone (red rectangles) estimated by our inference from simulation study. Points and vertical lines are used to show the mean, 2.5% and 97.5% percentile of the estimates from 50 simulated epidemics based on our data with 2353 individuals.