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. 2022 Mar 23;12:5020. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-08264-3

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Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Time-series of satellite-derived (a) sea surface temperature (SST) within a 15 km radius surrounding historical occurrences of Ecklonia radiata off Sadah, Oman (17.0420°N, 55.0796°E) and (b) the intensity of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode index, which is determined by the gradient in SST between the western equatorial Indian Ocean (50°E–70°E and 10°S–10°N) and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (90°E–110°E and 10°S–10°N). N.B. strong positive IOD mode indices are associated with anomalously warm ocean temperatures and the suppression of upwelling in the Western Indian Ocean, including coastal environments off Oman. Trends in minimum (blue data), mean (orange data) and maximum (red data) annual SST have been overlaid in panel a), which show significant (at alpha level 0.05) positive increases in minimum (+ 1.36 °C ± 1.01 °C 95% CI), mean (+ 1.12 °C ± 0.39 °C 95% CI) and maximum (+ 1.52 °C ± 0.72 °C 95% CI) SST from 1982 to 2018 throughout the spatial extent assessed. Dashed horizontal lines on all plots denote 90% confidence intervals for each time-series. Black circles on panel B represent dates when E. radiata was documented in Oman and red lines and circles represent dates of surveys when it was not seen in surveys.