Table 5.
Estimated programme and health system strengthening costs 2021–30 extrapolated from the National Health Strategic Development Plan 2 (NSHDP2) (2018–22)
|
Moderate scale-up scenario* |
Aggressive scale-up scenario† |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSHDP2 programme costs (billion [₦]) for moderate scenario 2021–30‡ | Cost per capita (US$, 2021–30 total)§ | Cost per capita, per year ($, from 2021 increasing annually to 2030§ | NSHDP2 programme costs (billion [₦]) for aggressive scenario 2021–30‡ | Cost per capita ($, 2021–30 total)§ | Cost per capita, per year ($, from 2021 increasing annually to 2030§ | |
| Programme area | ||||||
| MRH | ₦490 billion | $5·48 | $0·50–$0·58 | ₦5403 billion | $57·61 | $5·37–$6·07 |
| Child health | ₦181 billion | $1·94 | $0·19–$0·19 | ₦2195 billion | $22·97 | $0·86–$3·32 |
| Immunisation | ₦135 billion | $1·50 | $0·11–$0·18 | ₦2210 billion | $23·02 | $0·61–$3·57 |
| Adolescent health | ₦231 billion | $2·54 | $0·11–$0·37 | ₦2694 billion | $28·51 | $2·15–$3·46 |
| Malaria | ₦97 billion | $1·03 | $0·10–$0·10 | ₦758 billion | $8·11 | $0·81–$0·81 |
| Tuberculosis | ₦24 billion | $0·26 | $0·03–$0·03 | ₦324 billion | $3·45 | $0·31–$0·38 |
| HIV/AIDS | ₦201 billion | $2·23 | $0·16–$0·27 | ₦2033 billion | $21·74 | $2·17–$2·17 |
| Nutrition | ₦286 billion | $3·17 | $0·21–$0·40 | ₦3179 billion | $33·72 | $2·70–$3·95 |
| WASH | ₦59 billion | $0·66 | $0·05–$0·08 | ₦529 billion | $5·63 | $0·50–$0·62 |
| Non-Communicable Diseases | ₦265 billion | $2·92 | $0·16–$0·40 | ₦2758 billion | $29·26 | $2·37–$3·41 |
| Mental health | ₦85 billion | $0·94 | $0·05–$0·13 | ₦840 billion | $8·90 | $0·68–$1·07 |
| Neglected tropical diseases | ₦2 billion | $0·03 | $0·003–$0·003 | ₦57 billion | $0·61 | $0·06–$0·06 |
| Health promotion and social determinants of health | ₦5 billion | $0·05 | $0·005–$0·05 | ₦69 billion | $0·74 | $0·07–$0·07 |
| Emergency hospital services | ₦10 billion | $0·11 | $0·01–$0·01 | ₦172 billion | $1·84 | $0·18–$0·18 |
| Public health emergencies, and preparedness and response | ₦1 billion | $0·01 | $0·001–$0·001 | ₦10 billion | $0·11 | $0·01–$0·01 |
| Total | ₦2072 billion | $23 | $2–$3 | ₦23233 billion | $246 | $19–$29 |
| Health system strengthening | ||||||
| Programme activity costs | ₦688 billion | $7·36 | $0·74–$0·74 | ₦999 billion | $10·68 | $1·07–$1·07 |
| Human resources | ₦6317 billion | $70·54 | $6·07–$7·82 | ₦6430 billion | $68·46 | $6·10–$7·45 |
| Infrastructure | ₦1074 billion | $11·49 | $1·15–$1·15 | ₦1080 billion | $11·54 | $1·15–$1·15 |
| Logistics | ₦3623 billion | $40·12 | $2·65–$5·15 | ₦4475 billion | $47·24 | $3·11–$5·98 |
| Medicines, commodities, and supplies | ₦8320 billion | $92·10 | $6·00–$11·89 | ₦10261 billion | $108·27 | $7·00–$13·82 |
| Health financing | ₦109 billion | $1·16 | $0·12–$0·12 | ₦149 billion | $1·60 | $0·16–$0·16 |
| Health information systems | ₦48 billion | $0·52 | $0·05–$0·05 | ₦80 billion | $0·86 | $0·09–$0·09 |
| Governance | ₦72 billion | $0·77 | $0·08–$0·08 | ₦149 billion | $1·60 | $0·16–$0·16 |
| Total | ₦20 252 billion | $224 | $17–$27 | ₦23 625 billion | $250 | $19–$30 |
MRH=Maternal and reproductive health. WASH=Water, sanitation, and hygiene. US$=US dollars (with an assumed exchange rate of 395 Naira per dollar).
Moderate scale-up scenario. NSHDP2—average coverage increase of 17·5% during 2018–22, extrapolated to 2021–30.
Aggressive scale-up scenario. NSHDP2—average coverage increase of 30% during 2018–22, extrapolated to 2020–30.
2021–30, a total of 10 years of costs calculated from NSHDP2 costs by extrapolating from 2020, 2021, and 2022 costs from Tables 54 and 55 (moderate scale-up) or Tables 56 and 57 (aggressive scale-up) of the NSHDP211 to get costs for each year from 2021 to 2030, and then summing up those costs. Simple extrapolation of the trend was done by dragging cells in Excel (version 16) (assuming continued constant rate of change). Any negative trend was removed and the projected population increase was also accounted for so that the 2021 per capita cost was repeated for all years to 2030 and used to calculate the total costs for 2021–30 (a flat trend resulting from the removal of a negative trend is apparent in which the per capita costs stay the same throughout 2021–30).
Population of Nigeria for years 2021–30 taken from the UN Department for Economic and Social Affairs1