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. 2022 Mar 24;21:106. doi: 10.1186/s12936-021-03980-z

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 5 — Absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up duration (compared to day 63 estimates). Overestimation of efficacy relative to day 63 estimates for AL and DP regimen. In areas of high transmission, there was a median of 15% new infections in the DP arm and 30% new infections in AL arm representing. In areas of low transmission, there was a median of 8% new infections in the DP arm and 15% new infections in the AL arm. Simulation assumed 500 patients per treatment arm and was repeated for 1,000 runs. AL = artemether-lumefantrine; DP = dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (See Additional file 1 for further details on the functions used for simulation)