Table 3.
Fontan Failure Score accuracy according to thresholds.
| Threshold Fontan failure score | Sensitivity (%) (95% CI) | Specificity (%) (95% CI) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | +LR | –LR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary outcome: Fontan failure | ||||||
| 4 | 100.0 (93.2; 100.0) | 81.4 (74.1; 87.4) | 65.0 | 100.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 92.3 (81.5; 97.7) | 87.6 (81.1; 92.5) | 73.8 | 97.0 | 7.9 | 0.1 |
| 6 | 80.8 (67.5; 90.4) | 91.7 (86.0; 95.7) | 78.8 | 92.5 | 10.5 | 0.2 |
| 7 | 67.3 (52.9; 79.7) | 95.7 (91.2; 98.5) | 85.0 | 88.6 | 15.9 | 0.4 |
| 8 | 53.9 (39.5; 67.8) | 99.3 (96.2; 99.9) | 96.6 | 85.8 | 78.6 | 0.5 |
| 9 | 42.3 (28.7; 56.8) | 99.3 (96.2; 99.9) | 95.8 | 83.3 | 64.6 | 0.6 |
| 10 | 26.9 (15.6; 41.0) | 100.0 (97.5; 100) | 100.0 | 78.9 | - | 0.8 |
| 11 | 17.3 (8.2; 30.3) | 100.0 (97.5; 100) | 100.0 | 77.2 | - | 0.8 |
| 12 | 3.9 (0.5; 13.2) | 100.0 (97.5; 100) | 100.0 | 74.5 | - | 1.0 |
| Secondary outcome: mortality | ||||||
| 4 | 100.0 (87.2; 100.0) | 69.0 (61.5; 75.8) | 33.8 | 100.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 92.6 (75.7; 99.1) | 76.6 (69.5; 82.7) | 38.5 | 98.5 | 4.0 | 0.1 |
| 6 | 77.8 (57.7; 91.4) | 81.9 (75.3; 87.3) | 40.4 | 95.9 | 4.3 | 0.3 |
| 7 | 74.1 (53.7; 88.9) | 88.3 (82.5; 92.7) | 50.0 | 95.6 | 6.3 | 0.3 |
| 8 | 63.0 (42.4; 80.6) | 93.0 (88.1; 96.3) | 58.6 | 94.1 | 9.0 | 0.4 |
| 9 | 51.9 (32.0; 71.3) | 94.2 (89.5; 97.2) | 58.3 | 92.5 | 8.9 | 0.5 |
| 10 | 33.3 (16.5; 54.0) | 97.7 (94.1; 99.4) | 69.2 | 90.3 | 14.3 | 0.7 |
| 11 | 25.9 (11.1; 46.3) | 98.8 (95.8; 99.9) | 77.8 | 89.4 | 22.2 | 0.7 |
| 12 | 7.4 (0.9; 24.3) | 100.0 (97.9; 100.0) | 100 | 87.2 | - | 0.9 |
+LR, positive likelihood ratio; –LR, negative likelihood ratio; CI, confidence interval; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.