Table 11.
Multivariable models for incident death without atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study, from index age 55 to age 95
| Risk factor at entry age | Pseudo-observation | Cumulative incidence models | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fine-Gray | Flexible parametric | ||
| OR (95% CI) | SHR (95% CI) | Cml. SHR (95% CI) | |
| Male | 0.98 (0.72, 1.32) | 3.14 (1.96, 5.04) | 5.29 (8.26, 3.39) |
| Male × log(age) | 0.41 (0.30, 0.57) | 0.17 (0.31, 0.09) | |
| Height, SDU | 0.92 (0.78, 1.08) | 0.94 (0.86, 1.03) | 0.94 (1.03, 0.86) |
| Weight, SDU | 0.99 (0.89, 1.11) | 0.90 (0.82, 0.98) | 0.90 (0.98, 0.83) |
| Systolic blood pressure, SDU | 0.86 (0.73, 1.02) | 1.05 (0.96, 1.14) | 1.04 (1.13, 0.96) |
| Diastolic blood pressure, SDU | 1.24 (1.05, 1.46) | 1.13 (1.04, 1.24) | 1.13 (1.22, 1.04) |
| Hypertension | 0.79 (0.63, 1.00) | 1.77 (1.19, 2.63) | 3.02 (4.89, 1.87) |
| Hypertension × log(age) | 0.76 (0.65, 0.89) | 0.24 (0.44, 0.13) | |
| Current smoker | 2.47 (1.71, 3.56) | 3.85 (2.60, 5.68) | 3.92 (5.23, 2.94) |
| Current smoker × log(age) | 0.80 (0.69, 0.92) | 0.44 (0.62, 0.31) | |
| Elevated alcohol use | 0.98 (0.72, 1.32) | 1.17 (1.03, 1.33) | 1.17 (1.33, 1.03) |
| Prior diabetes | 1.66 (1.14, 2.41) | 1.90 (1.55, 2.32) | 7.65 (12.42, 4.71) |
| Prior diabetes × log(age) | 0.81 (0.70, 0.92) | 0.20 (0.35, 0.11) | |
| Prior HF | 1.16 (0.39, 3.48) | 9.53 (3.92, 23.17) | 0.68 (1.75, 0.27) |
| Prior HF × log(age) | 2.71 (6.31, 1.16) | ||
| Prior MI | 2.62 (1.29, 5.31) | 2.07 (1.60, 2.68) | 2.08 (2.69, 1.60) |
SDU: standard deviation unit, OR: odds ratio, SHR: subdistribution hazard ratio, Cumul: cumulative, BP: blood pressure, HF: heart failure, MI: myocardial infarction. Model coefficients for continuous risk factors are presented as a 1 SDU increase (height SD=3.7 inches, weight SD=39.5 pounds, systolic blood pressure SD=17.1 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure SD=9.8 mmHg). Time-covariate interactions are specified as covariate × log(age – 55) for the Fine-Gray model and covariate × log(age) for the flexible parametric model. The flexible parametric models also included 4 terms for the restricted cubic spline of the baseline hazard.