Table 9.

Sensitivity analysis: predicted differences in lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at age 95, from index age 55 using BIC

Risk factor	Flexible parametric BIC
Male	5.32 (−0.25, 10.89)
Height, SDU	2.83 (−0.30, 5.95)
Weight, SDU	0.70 (−2.20, 3.59)
Systolic blood pressure, SDU	6.04 (3.13, 8.94)
Diastolic blood pressure, SDU	−2.25 (−4.79, 0.29)
Anti-hypertensive use	1.84 (−1.58, 5.26)
Current smoker	1.97 (−2.05, 5.99)
Elevated alcohol use	2.22 (−0.02, 4.46)
Prior diabetes	−4.63 (−13.92, 4.65)
Prior heart failure	11.46 (−17.68, 40.60)
Prior myocardial infarction	−9.36 (−17.52, −1.20)

SDU: standard deviation unit. Results are % differences in lifetime risk (95% confidence interval). Differences in lifetime risk for continuous risk factors are for one standard deviation increase from the mean. Differences in lifetime risk were obtained by transforming model coefficients at the mean value of other covariates. 95% CIs are obtained with the delta method.