Table 3.
Weekly | ARIMA model | Parameter | Estimate | Standard error | p | AIC | SBC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Open Upa | AR(1,0,0) | MUb | −6.34 | 12.77 | 0.620 | 526 | 532 |
AR1c | 0.77 | 0.09 | <0.001 | ||||
COVIDd | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.002 | ||||
AR(1,0,0) | MU | −4.41 | 9.79 | 0.652 | 520 | 528 | |
AR1 | 0.71 | 0.10 | <0.001 | ||||
ImpF-2e | 34.87 | 17.14 | 0.042 | ||||
MagI-3f | 0.14 | 0.03 | <0.001 | ||||
CMDg | AR(1,0,0) | MU | −4.68 | 10.03 | 0.641 | 497 | 503 |
AR1 | 0.77 | 0.09 | <0.001 | ||||
COVID | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.003 | ||||
AR(1,0,0) | MU | −3.20 | 7.67 | 0.676 | 492 | 500 | |
AR1 | 0.71 | 0.09 | <0.001 | ||||
ImpF-2 | 26.53 | 13.41 | 0.048 | ||||
MagI-3 | 0.10 | 0.03 | <0.001 | ||||
No CMDh | AR(1,0,0) | MU | −0.78 | 2.35 | 0.740 | 395 | 401 |
AR1 | 0.59 | 0.11 | <0.001 | ||||
COVID | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.004 | ||||
AR(1,0,0) | MU | −0.61 | 2.04 | 0.763 | 391 | 397 | |
AR1 | 0.54 | 0.12 | <0.001 | ||||
MagI-3 | 0.04 | 0.01 | <0.001 |
Selected ARIMA model for COVID-mention.
Intercept.
Autoregressive, lagged by one day.
COVID-19 reported cases in Hong Kong.
Impulse function for the 2nd wave: the value of 1 for the 2nd wave of COVID-19.
Magnitude effect for the 3rd wave: COVID-19 magnitude in the 3rd wave of outbreak.
Selected ARIMA model for the CMD-mention subgroup.
Selected ARIMA model for non-CMD mention subgroup.