Table 1.
Age standardized incidence, mortality, and 1-MIR rates per 100,000 individuals as well as LGCM results stratified by gender and super- region, 1990–2019
| Super- region | Metric | Gender | Year | LGCM estimates` | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1996 | 2002 | 2008 | 2014 | 2019 | Intercept | Slope | |||
| Incidence | ||||||||||
| Female | 2.03(1.95,2.11) | 1.99(1.92,2.07) | 1.96(1.88,2.03) | 2.37(2.27,2.47) | 2.43(2.33,2.53) | 2.38(2.16,2.64) | 3.58* | 0.08** | ||
| Male | 4.13(3.99,4.6) | 4.44(4.29,4.58) | 4.46(4.34,4.57) | 5.31(5.15,5.45) | 5.58(5.39,5.77) | 5.44(4.79,6.07) | 8.31* | 0.11** | ||
| Both | 2.84(2.74,2.92) | 2.97(2.87,3.06) | 2.96(2.88,3.04) | 3.57(3.45,3.68) | 3.73(3.60,3.85) | 3.65(3.33,3.98) | 5.62* | 0.09** | ||
| CEEECA | Mortality | |||||||||
| Female | 2.15(2.06,2.24) | 2.07(1.99,2.13) | 2.02(1.94,2.10) | 2.49(2.38,2.59) | 2.51(2.38,2.60) | 2.45(2.21,2.69) | 3.68*** | 0.11* | ||
| Male | 4.33(4.17,4.46) | 4.55(4.42,4.68) | 4.56(4.43,4.68) | 5.53(5.33,5.71) | 5.62(5.42,5.80) | 5.55(4.90,6.24) | 8.62* | 0.15* | ||
| Both | 2.98(2.86,3.06) | 3.03(2.94,3.11) | 3.02(2.93,3.10) | 3.71(3.57,3.82) | 3.77(3.63,3.87) | 3.72(3.39,4.07) | 5.76* | 0.12* | ||
| 1-MIR | ||||||||||
| Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Male | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.004(0,0.008) | 0.002(0,0.003) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.006(0.005,0.007) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.005* | 0.001** | ||
| Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Incidence | ||||||||||
| Female | 2.50(2.37,2.59) | 3.25(3.04,3.38) | 3.94(3.64,4.10) | 3.99(3.62,4.18) | 3.87(3.47,4.09) | 3.82(3.35,4.25) | 2.25*** | −0.08*** | ||
| Male | 7.79(7.59,7.95) | 9.96(9.67,10.20) | 11.74(11.39,11.97) | 11.76(11.29,12.09) | 11.32(10.78,11.66) | 11.20(10.05,12.50) | 5.63*** | −0.15*** | ||
| Both | 4.88(4.74,4.99) | 6.29(6.05,6.45) | 7.51(7.20,7.68) | 7.58(7.17,7.81) | 7.33(6.90,7.58) | 7.27(6.55,8.01) | 3.78*** | −0.10*** | ||
| HI | Mortality | |||||||||
| Female | 2.32(2.18,2.40) | 2.88(2.68,2.98) | 3.38(3.10,3.52) | 3.30(2.96,3.48) | 3.19(2.82,3.37) | 3.14(2.78,3.35) | 2.21*** | −0.05*** | ||
| Male | 6.94(6.76,7.10) | 8.60(8.33,8.78) | 9.68(9.36,9.90) | 9.17(8.76,9.46) | 8.68(8.25,8.95) | 8.55(7.94,8.97) | 5.37*** | −0.09*** | ||
| Both | 4.38(4.23,4.48) | 5.44(5.20,5.56) | 6.24(5.94,6.40) | 5.98(5.61,6.18) | 5.71(5.31,5.91) | 5.65(5.23,5.95) | 3.63*** | −0.08*** | ||
| 1-MIR | ||||||||||
| Female | 0.04(0.03,0.06) | 0.09(0.08,0.10) | 0.10(0.12,0.11) | 0.13(0.11,0.14) | 0.13(0.14,0.15) | 0.12(0.11,0.16) | 0.12*** | 0.002*** | ||
| Male | 0.11(0.10,0.12) | 0.13(0.11,0.14) | 0.17(0.16,0.18) | 0.22(0.21,0.23) | 0.22(0.20,0.23) | 0.22(0.19,0.26) | 0.16*** | 0.003*** | ||
| Both | 0.09(0.08,0.10) | 0.12(0.11,0.13) | 0.15(0.15,0.17) | 0.19(0.18,0.20) | 0.19(0.17,0.20) | 0.19(0.18,0.22) | 0.15*** | 0.002*** | ||
| Incidence | ||||||||||
| Female | 3.00(2.84,3.17) | 2.65(2.51,2.76) | 2.13(2.02,2.22) | 2.18(2.06,2.27) | 2.27(2.12,2.38) | 2.26(2.03,2.51) | 2.11*** | 0.01* | ||
| Male | 3.61(3.41,3.81) | 3.32(3.14,3.49) | 2.95(2.76,3.11) | 3.28(3.09,3.45) | 3.66(3.47,3.82) | 3.72(3.37,4.14) | 3.40*** | 0.03* | ||
| Both | 3.30(3.14,3.43) | 2.97(2.83,3.07) | 2.52(2.38,2.63) | 2.69(2.54,2.82) | 2.91(2.75,3.03) | 2.93(2.66,3.27) | 2.46*** | 0.02* | ||
| LAC | Mortality | |||||||||
| Female | 3.23(3.03,3.40) | 2.81(2.65,2.94) | 2.29(2.14,2.39) | 2.30(2.15,2.42) | 2.43(2.27,2.54) | 2.40(2.16,2.67) | 2.41*** | 0.07** | ||
| Male | 3.84(3.61,4.05) | 3.50(3.30,3.69) | 3.16(2.96,3.35) | 3.45(3.22,3.64) | 3.88(3.66,4.06) | 3.95(3.57,4.38) | 3.28*** | 0.11* | ||
| Both | 3.52(3.33,3.67) | 3.14(2.97,3.27) | 2.70(2.53,2.82) | 2.83(2.65,2.97) | 3.09(2.92,3.22) | 3.11(2.82,3.44) | 2.86*** | 0.09* | ||
| 1-MIR | ||||||||||
| Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Male | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Incidence | ||||||||||
| Female | 3.92(3.12,4.81) | 3.68(3.19,4.20) | 3.42(3.13,3.73) | 3.87(3.55,4.23) | 4.17(3.76,4.75) | 4.10(3.44,4.97) | 3.93*** | 0.01** | ||
| Male | 8.18(7.08,9.30) | 7.78(7.05,8.58) | 7.79(7.27,8.33) | 8.68(8.03,9.42) | 8.93(7.84,10.22) | 8.40(6.60,10.63) | 6.46*** | 0.03** | ||
| Both | 6.08(5.28,6.81) | 5.76(5.24,6.25) | 5.64(5.29,5.99) | 6.31(5.91,6.81) | 6.59(5.93,7.42) | 6.29(5.13,7.71) | 5.30*** | 0.02** | ||
| NAME | Mortality | |||||||||
| Female | 4.13(3.28,5.12) | 3.83(3.27,4.43) | 3.61(3.28,3.93) | 3.87(3.51,4.24) | 3.95(3.55,4.45) | 3.69(3.10,4.51) | 4.30*** | −0.001** | ||
| Male | 8.62(7.48,9.79) | 8.18(7.39,9.08) | 8.41(7.76,9.07) | 8.67(8.00,9.38) | 9.16(8.12,10.28) | 8.63(6.81,10.83) | 7.06*** | −0.003** | ||
| Both | 6.39(5.55,7.19) | 6.03(5.47,6.55) | 6.04(5.62,6.42) | 6.31(5.90,6.74) | 6.59(5.99,7.31) | 6.20(5.06,7.62) | 5.79*** | −0.003** | ||
| 1-MIR | ||||||||||
| Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.04(0.05,0.04) | 0.09(0.09,0.10) | 0.13(0.13,0.12) | −0.007*** | 0.001** | ||
| Male | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.02(0.02,0.03) | 0.00(0.00,0.02) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.004*** | 0.007** | ||
| Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.03(0.03,0.04) | 0.03(0.02,0.04) | 0.04(0.04,0.04) | −0.005* | 0.003* | ||
| Incidence | ||||||||||
| Female | 1.96(1.54,2.45) | 2.01(1.58,2.44) | 2.05(1.65,2.43) | 2.00(1.63,2.34) | 1.98(1.67,2.29) | 1.95(1.54,2.47) | – | – | ||
| Male | 3.29(2.64,3.91) | 3.38(2.75,3.88) | 3.52(2.96,3.91) | 3.53(3.04,3.87) | 3.45(3.13,3.76) | 3.38(2.86,3.99) | – | – | ||
| Both | 2.66(2.20,3.08) | 2.72(2.25,3.09) | 2.79(2.37,3.11) | 2.77(2.37,3.04) | 2.70(2.42,2.94) | 2.66(2.30,3.05) | – | – | ||
| SAa | Mortality | |||||||||
| Female | 2.13(1.66,2.70) | 2.18(1.74,2.67) | 2.25(1.80,2.66) | 2.22(1.82,2.59) | 2.08(1.74,2.44) | 2.09(1.61,2.67) | – | – | ||
| Male | 3.46(2.78,4.07) | 3.61(2.93,4.13) | 3.74(3.13,4.19) | 3.78(3.27,4.18) | 3.59(3.28,3.92) | 3.56(2.98,4.18) | – | – | ||
| Both | 2.82(2.33,3.27) | 2.92(2.44,3.32) | 3.01(2.54,3.35) | 3.00(2.59,3.30) | 2.82(2.56,3.09) | 2.81(2.43,3.24) | – | – | ||
| 1-MIR | ||||||||||
| Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Male | 0.00(0.00,0.01) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Incidence | ||||||||||
| Female | 12.17(10.133,14.70) | 12.18(10.91,13.77) | 8.39(7.78,9.18) | 5.17(4.79,5.58) | 4.75(4.30,5.20) | 4.75(3.97,5.61) | 6.11*** | −0.05*** | ||
| Male | 29.69(24.58,35.49) | 33.06(30.15,36.51) | 23.46(21.73,25.32) | 13.61(12.66,14.74) | 13.85(12.57,15.34) | 14.66(12.12,17.59) | 12.63*** | −0.10* | ||
| Both | 20.85(17.91,24.30) | 22.50(20.94,24.41) | 15.77(14.85,16.83) | 9.27(8.71,9.98) | 9.14(8.44,9.89) | 9.52(8.19,11.01) | 9.35*** | −0.09* | ||
| SAEAO | Mortality | |||||||||
| Female | 12.70(10.53,15.36) | 12.69(11.24,14.47) | 8.10(7.25,9.15) | 5.36(4.92,5.82) | 4.73(4.27,5.22) | 4.67(3.93,5.52) | 6.38*** | −0.07*** | ||
| Male | 29.87(24.72,35.64) | 33.42(30.05,37.20) | 21.42(19.21,23.77) | 13.61(12.49,14.79) | 12.89(11.35,14.40) | 13.40(11.17,15.84) | 13.05*** | −0.05*** | ||
| Both | 21.13(18.37,24.44) | 22.84(20.90,24.88) | 14.56(13.37,15.89) | 9.31(8.67,9.97) | 8.61(7.84,9.43) | 8.82(7.65,10.09) | 9.60*** | −0.05* | ||
| 1-MIR | ||||||||||
| Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.06(0.04,0.08) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.02(0.01,0.03) | 0.03(0.02,0.04) | 0.006 | – | ||
| Male | 0.03(0.01,0.05) | 0.02(0.01,0.04) | 0.15(0.12,0.18) | 0.04(0.03,0.06) | 0.13(0.10,0.15) | 0.11(0.09,0.12) | 0.01 | – | ||
| Both | 0.02(0.01,0.04) | 0.03(0.01,0.05) | 0.11(0.08,0.13) | 0.03(0.02,0.05) | 0.10(0.08,0.12) | 0.09(0.08,0.10) | 0.01 | – | ||
| Incidence | ||||||||||
| Female | 3.31(2.83,3.95) | 3.40(2.94,3.93) | 3.37(2.94,3.84) | 3.17(2.78,3.54) | 3.06(2.69,3.43) | 2.90(2.52,3.31) | 3.73* | −0.002* | ||
| Male | 5.61(4.57,7.59) | 6.68(5.99,7.60) | 6.88(6.19,7.66) | 6.34(5.73,7.00) | 6.05(5.47,6.67) | 5.75(5.09,6.46) | 8.14*** | −0.03* | ||
| Both | 4.43(3.77,5.54) | 4.99(4.49,5.52) | 5.05(4.57,5.59) | 4.67(4.24,5.11) | 4.45(4.05,4.89) | 4.22(3.77,4.71) | 5.90*** | −0.01* | ||
| SSA | Mortality | |||||||||
| Female | 3.54(3.05,4.22) | 3.63(3.16,4.17) | 3.55(3.07,4.05) | 3.37(2.95,3.76) | 3.30(2.89,3.70) | 3.13(2.72,3.59) | 3.85*** | −0.02*** | ||
| Male | 6.01(4.91,8.14) | 7.29(6.55,8.28) | 7.41(6.58,8.32) | 6.80(6.08,7.54) | 6.54(5.88,7.20) | 6.19(5.46,6.91) | 10.56*** | −0.05* | ||
| Both | 4.73(4.01,5.93) | 5.38(4.83,5.96) | 5.38(4.83,5.99) | 4.98(4.49,5.48) | 4.80(4.35,5.26) | 4.53(4.03,5.04) | 5.95*** | −0.03* | ||
| 1-MIR | ||||||||||
| Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Male | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Both | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | – | – | ||
| Incidence | ||||||||||
| Female | 5.22(4.62,5.96) | 5.55(5.14,6.04) | 4.69(4.40,4.95) | 3.80(3.56,3.98) | 3.66(3.40,3.87) | 3.63(3.23,4.05) | 3.99*** | −0. 03*** | ||
| Male | 13.07(11.42,14.87) | 15.02(14.06,16.16) | 12.63(12.02,13.26) | 9.60(9.18,10.06) | 9.59(9.07,10.11) | 9.71(8.69,10.84) | 7.91*** | −0. 08* | ||
| Both | 8.98(8.10,9.97) | 10.09(9.56,10.70) | 8.47(8.10,8.84) | 6.55(6.25,6.82) | 6.47(6.11,6.77) | 6.51(5.95,7.16) | 5.83*** | −0. 07* | ||
| Global | Mortality | |||||||||
| Female | 5.33(4.67,6.09) | 5.59(5.15,6.11) | 4.47(4.15,4.80) | 3.72(3.44,3.91) | 3.51(3.22,3.74) | 3.46(3.08,3.83) | 4.17*** | −0. 02*** | ||
| Male | 12.90(11.30,14.67) | 14.76(13.65,15.99) | 11.48(10.70,12.29) | 9.00(8.55,9.45) | 8.66(8.10,9.22) | 8.73(7.88,9.60) | 8.14*** | −0. 07* | ||
| Both | 8.93(8.09,9.90) | 9.95(9.32,10.60) | 7.78(7.35,8.20) | 6.20(5.87,6.46) | 5.93(5.59,6.24) | 5.95(5.44,6.44) | 6.03*** | −0. 06* | ||
| 1-MIR | ||||||||||
| Female | 0.00(0.00,0.00) | 0.01(0.00,0.03) | 0.07(0.05,0.09) | 0.04(0.03,0.06) | 0.05(0.05,0.03) | 0.04(0.02,0.05) | 0.006 | 0.01* | ||
| Male | 0.04(0.02,0.05) | 0.05(0.04,0.07) | 0.11(0.09,0.13) | 0.09(0.08,0.11) | 0.11(0.10,0.13) | 0.11(0.10,0.13) | 0.01 | 0.01* | ||
| Both | 0.02(0.01,0.03) | 0.04(0.03,0.07) | 0.09(0.08,0.11) | 0.07(0.06,0.09) | 0.09(0.06,0.10) | 0.09(0.07,0.11) | 0.01 | 0.01* | ||
Data in parentheses are 95% uncertainty intervals
CEEECA Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, HI High Income, LAC Latin America and Caribbean, NAME North Africa and Middle East, SA South Asia, SAEAO Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania, SSA Sub-Saharan Africa, MIR Mortality-to-incidence ratio, LGCM Latent growth curve model
* p<0.05, ** p>0.05, *** p<0.001
aNot fitted LGCM, due to inadequate number of countries