Table 4.
Joinpoint trend analysis of liver cancer incidence, mortality, and 1-MIR rates worldwide by age group, 1990–2019
| Measure | Trend | 0–14 | 15–49 | 50–69 | 70+ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | APC (95%CI) | Year | APC (95%CI) | Year | APC (95%CI) | Year | APC (95%CI) | ||
| Mortality | |||||||||
| Trend1 | 1990–1996 | 0(−0.30, 0.20) | 1990–1996 | 3.20*(2.70, 3.70) | 1990–1996 | 1.60*(1.30, 2.00) | 1990–1996 | 2.60*(2.40, 2.80) | |
| Trend2 | 1996–2000 | −3.80*(−4.50, −3.20) | 1996–2000 | −3.40*(−4.70, −20) | 1996–2000 | −2.30*(−3.20, −1.40) | 1996–2000 | −0.20(− 0.70, 0.30) | |
| Trend3 | 2000–2003 | −7.30*(−8.60, −6.00) | 2000–2004 | − 13.10*(− 14.30, −11.90) | 2000–2004 | − 10.40*(− 11.20, −9.60) | 2000–2004 | −5.50*(−6.00, −5.00) | |
| Trend4 | 2003–2007 | −1.50*(−2.20, − 0.80) | 2004–2007 | − 3.20*(−5.80, − 0.50) | 2004–2007 | −2.60*(− 4.40, − 0.80) | 2004–2019 | −0.50*(− 0.70, − 0.40) | |
| Trend5 | 2007–2012 | 0.10(− 0.40, 0.50) | 2007–2019 | −0.20*(− 0.30, 00) | 2007–2012 | − 1.0*(− 1.60, − 0.50) | |||
| Trend6 | 2012–2019 | − 1.00*(− 1.20, − 0.80) | 2012–2019 | 0.50*(0.20, 0.70) | |||||
| AAPC | 1990–2019 | − 1.80*(− 2.00, − 1.60) | 1990–2019 | − 2.10*(− 2.50, − 1.80) | 1990–2019 | − 1.80*(− 2.10, − 1.60) | 1990–2019 | − 0.40*(− 0.50, − 0.30) | |
| Incidence | |||||||||
| Trend1 | 1990–1995 | 0.50*(0.10, 1.00) | 1990–1995 | 3.70*(3.20, 4.10) | 1990–1994 | 2.4*(2.10, 2.7) | 1990–1994 | 3.50*(3.20, 3.80) | |
| Trend2 | 1995–2000 | −2.50*(− 3.10, − 1.90) | 1995–2000 | −2.00*(− 2.60, − 1.40) | 1994–1998 | − 0.40(− 0.80, 0.00) | 1994–2000 | 0.90*(0.700, 1.10) | |
| Trend3 | 2000–2004 | − 5.50*(− 6.40, − 4.60) | 2000–2005 | − 11.30*(− 11.90, − 10.80) | 1998–2001 | − 3.60*(− 4.50, − 2.80) | 2000–2005 | −4.10*(− 4.40, − 3.80) | |
| Trend4 | 2004–2019 | − 0.20*(− 0.30, − 0.10) | 2005–2019 | 0.20*(0.10, 0.30) | 2001–2005 | −9.30*(− 9.70, − 8.90) | 2005–2019 | 0.00(0.00, 0.10) | |
| Trend5 | 2005–2011 | − 0.80*(− 1.00, − 0.60) | |||||||
| Trend6 | 2011–2019 | 0.30*(0.30, 0.40) | |||||||
| AAPC | 1990–2019 | − 1.20*(− 1.40, − 1.10) | 1990–2019 | −1.70*(− 1.90, − 1.50) | 1990–2019 | −1.50*(− 1.60, − 1.40) | 1990–2019 | 0.00(− 0.10, 0.00) | |
| 1-MIR | |||||||||
| Trend1 | 1990–1992 | 8.90(−4.50, 24.20) | 1990–1992 | 10.90*(0.100, 22.90) | |||||
| Trend2 | 1992–1999 | − 3.00*(− 5.10, − 0.80) | 1992–1999 | − 2.00*(− 3.70, − 0.30) | |||||
| Trend3 | 1999–2002 | 23.90*(8.70, 41.20) | 1999–2002 | 35.00*(21.80, 49.50) | |||||
| Trend4 | 2002–2005 | −7.00(−18.40, 6.00) | 2002–2006 | −6.20*(− 10.90, − 1.30) | |||||
| Trend5 | 2005–2012 | 3.80*(1.60, 6.20) | 2006–2012 | 4.20*(1.80, 6.60) | |||||
| Trend6 | 2012–2019 | 0.40(−1.30, 2.20) | 2012–2019 | −0.50(− 1.90, 0.90) | |||||
| AAPC | 1990–2019 | 2.40*(0.30, 4.50) | 1990–2019 | 3.20*(1.70, 4.80) | |||||
APC Annual Percentage Change, AAPC Average Annual Percent Change, CI Confidence Interval, MIR Mortality-to-incidence Ratio
*Significantly different from 0 at alpha = 0.05 (p < 0.05). There are 1+(number of trend) joinpoints for each model