Table 2.

Key assumptions underpinning the simulation model of clinically active physician assistants through to 2035

Variable	Key assumption
New graduates	Domestic graduates only. Mean age 28 years.
Attrition from clinical activity as a PA	Includes PANCE failures (1%), retirement, administration, academic career, death, emigration and other reasons departing US clinical practice.
New PA programmes	The net number of PA programmes requesting accreditation at the end of 2021 was 40. From the time of provisional accreditation by ARC-PA to a graduation cohort averages 36 months (range 30–42). Growth of PA programmes is predicated on adding 10 at first, then five per year from 2026 to 2028, four per year for the following 2 years, three per year for the following 3 years, and two per year for 2034 and 2035.
Existing PA programmes	The number of PA programmes with a graduating class at the end of 2020 was 260. The mean programme length is 27 months (range 18–36). A historical steady state of 45 graduates (mean) per year is maintained.
Full-time status	Defined as 32+ hours per week worked clinically. Remains stable at 85% of all clinically active PAs.
Other	N/A

ARC-PA = Accreditation Review Commission on Education for the Physician Assistant; PA = physician assistant; PANCE = Physician Assistant National Certification Examination.