Figure 3. Estimated Numbers of Melanoma Cases and Deaths From 2020 to 2040, by Projection Scenario.

Figure 3 shows different possible scenarios for future changes in the numbers of melanoma cases and deaths. The baseline scenario (black line) assumes no changes in incidence rates, which means that the increase in numbers is solely a result of changes in population size and composition. Because stable incidence rates are not very likely, additional scenarios are presented that give insight into how, for example, reductions in incidence and mortality rates would affect the future absolute burden. The graph also shows that incidence rates would need to decrease by more than 2% in order to keep the number of cases stable or to see decreases (when comparing 2020 and 2040).