Table 2.
Key Model Variables: Mean Values and 95% Uncertainty Intervals
| Parameters | Mean Value | 95% Uncertainty Interval | Sources and Modeling Parameters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change in SSB Consumption and BMI | |||
| Daily intake of SSB, juice, and milk | See Appendix Table 2 | See Appendix Table 2 for s.e.m. | Samples drawn from a normal distribution based on age- and gender-specific mean and standard error from NHANES 2011-2012 |
| Own-price elasticity of demand for SSB | 1.22 | (0.70; 2.63) | Samples drawn from an exponential distribution (β=0.5251, Shift=0.6892) fitted to absolute value of weighted frequency of twelve estimates included in a review by Powell et al. with mean=1.21 and range=0.69-3.87. 41 |
| Δ in SSB consumption (8oz/day) to Δweight (kg) in youth (2-19 years of age) | 1.01 | (0.48; 1.54) | Samples drawn from a normal distribution (mean=1.01, SD=0.27) based on the mean and standard error from a RCT by de Ruyter et al.46 |
| Δ in SSB consumption (12oz/day) to Δ BMI (kg/m2) in adults (>19 years of age) | 0.39 | (0.22; 0.56) | Samples drawn from a uniform distribution (min=0.21, max=0.57) based on four studies.42–45 |
| Cost of Implementing SSB Excise Tax | |||
| Government/Industry administration and compliance time costs per million people per year (FTE) | 0.32 | (0.10; 0.54) | Samples drawn from a uniform distribution (min=0.09, max=0.55) based on data from personal communications with Washington and West Virginia State Departments of Revenue. See Appendix for more detail. |
| Government/Industry field audit time costs per million people per year (FTE) | 0.30 | (0.24; 0.35) | Samples drawn from a beta distribution (min=0.223, most likely=0.297, max=0.371) based on an estimate of field audit time (+/25%) from a personal communication with West Virginia State Department of Revenue. |
| Field audit direct costs per million people per year ($) | 9,170 | (6,450; 11,900) | Samples drawn from a gamma distribution (5th percentile=$6,871; 50th percentile=$9,161; 95th percentile=$11,460) based on an estimate of field audit direct cost (+/25%) from a personal communication with West Virginia State Department of Revenue. |
| Tax certification system operating costs per million people per year ($) | 11,900 | (8,360; 15,400) | Samples drawn from a gamma distribution (5th percentile=$8,899; 50th percentile=$11,865; 95th percentile =$14,844) based on an estimate of tax certification operating costs (+/ 25%) from a personal communication with West Virginia State Department of Revenue. |
| Department of Revenue Officer salary ($) (+56% non-salary benefits) | 89,500 | N/A | Mean annual salaries from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2013 salary for Occupation 13-2081: Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents plus 56% non-salary benefits. |
| Industry Auditor salary ($) (+43% non-salary benefits) | 106,000 | N/A | Mean annual salaries from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2013 salary for Occupation 13-2011: Accountants and auditors plus 43% non-salary benefits. |
KG, Kilogram; FTE, Full-time equivalent; NHANES, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; SSB, Sugar-sweetened beverage
a
95% Uncertainty Interval based on 10,000 simulations drawn from parameter-specific distributions.