Table 3.
Mean Cost-Effectiveness Results With 95% Uncertainty Intervals
| Total population reached (millions) | 313 |
| First-year intervention cost ($ millions) | 51.0 (36.4; 65.5) |
| Ten-year intervention cost ($ millions) | 430 (307; 552) |
| Annual revenue ($ billions) | 12.5 (8.92; 14.1) |
|
| |
| Short-term Outcomes | |
|
| |
| Mean per capita BMI unit reduction for adults >19 years of age) | 0.08 (0.03; 0.20) |
| Mean per capita BMI unit reduction for youth 2-19 years of age | 0.16 (0.06; 0.37) |
| Total BMI units reduced (millions) | 31.7 (12.7; 74.3) |
| Total BMI units reduced (millions) (youth only) | 11.7 (4.21; 27.7) |
| Cost per BMI unit reduceda ($) (overall) | 3.16 (1.24; 8.14) |
| Cost per BMI unit reduced ($) (youth only) | 8.54 (3.33; 24.2) |
|
| |
| Ten-Year Outcomes | |
|
| |
| Total LYs saved (thousands) | 32.3 (11.1; 80.1) |
| Total DALYsb averted (thousands) | 101 (34.8; 249) |
| Total QALYsb gained (thousands) | 871 (342; 2,030) |
| Healthcare costsc ($ billions) | −23.6 (−54.9; −9.33) |
| Net costsd ($ billions) | −23.2 (−54.5; −8.88) |
| Healthcare cost savings per $ intervention cost ($) | 55.0 (21.0; 140) |
| Net cost per LY savede ($) | Cost-savingf |
| Net cost per DALY avertede ($) | Cost-savingf |
| Net cost per QALY gainede ($) | Cost-savingf |
DALYs, Disability-adjusted Life Years; QALYs, Quality-adjusted Life Years; Dollars, 2014 U.S. dollars; LY, Life years
Cost per BMI unit reduced based on two years of cost of implementation and total BMI reduction for all ages in the 2015 cohort or for youth only.
DALYs averted and QALYs increased due to the proposed intervention are calculated as the difference in the simulated disability-adjusted years of life lived over ten years in the intervention cohort compared to the baseline cohort of the U.S. population (>1 year of age) in 2015.
The reduction in health care costs refers to the simulated difference in ten-year healthcare costs due to the intervention for a baseline cohort of the U.S. population in 2015. Healthcare costs and health effects are estimated annually and are reported as present value in July 2014 dollars discounted at 3% annually.
Net costs include total implementation costs and healthcare cost savings over ten years.
Values are calculated as the ratio of mean incremental costs over LYs saved, DALYs averted, and QALs increased in the intervention scenario compared to the no-intervention scenario, with the mean and 95% uncertainty intervals reported from ten thousand iterations of the @Risk BMI simulation model and one million iterations of the BMI-to-DALY/QALY simulation.
Interventions are considered “Cost-saving,” and summary statistics are not calculated when they result in both a cost savings and a reduction in DALYs or an increase in QALYs.55