Table 4.
Mean Sensitivity Analyses Results With 95% Uncertainty Intervals
| Secondary scenario: Impact on BMI based on TEI studies | Tertiary scenario: Impact on BMI based on beverage substitution | Costs as 3% of annual tax revenue | 50% Tax pass-through ratef | 150% Tax pass-through ratef | Lowest identified own-price elasticity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total population reached (millions) | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 | 313 |
| First-year intervention cost ($ millions) | 51.0 (36.4; 65.5) | 51.0 (36.4; 65.5) | 375 (268; 422) | 51.0 (36.4; 65.5) | 51.0 (36.4; 65.5) | 51.0 (36.4; 65.5) |
| Ten-year intervention cost ($ millions) | 430 (307; 552) | 430 (307; 552) | 3,170 (2,250; 3,560) | 430 (307; 552) | 430 (307; 552) | 430 (307; 552) |
|
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| Short-term Outcomes | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Mean per capita BMI unit reduction for adults >19 years of age | 0.38 (0.18; 0.84) | 0.35 (0.15; 0.83) | 0.08 (0.03; 0.20) | 0.04 (0.02; 0.10) | 0.13 (0.05; 0.30) | 0.05 (0.03; 0.07) |
| Mean per capita BMI unit reduction for youth 2-19 years of age | 0.62 (0.30; 1.40) | 0.27 (0.06; 0.73) | 0.16 (0.06; 0.37) | 0.08 (0.03; 0.19) | 0.24 (0.09; 0.56) | 0.09 (0.04; 0.14) |
| Total BMI units reduced (millions) | 135 (66.1; 302) | 102 (41.7; 250) | 31.7 (12.7; 74.3) | 15.8 (6.37; 37.2) | 47.5 (19.1; 111) | 18.0 (9.97; 26.0) |
| Cost per BMI unit reduceda ($) | 0.74 (0.30; 1.64) | 0.98 (0.37; 2.55) | 23.3 (7.2; 63.1) | 6.31 (2.48; 16.3) | 2.10 (0.83; 5.42) | 5.56 (3.23; 10.74) |
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| Ten-year Outcomes | ||||||
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| Total LYs saved (thousands) | 126 (54.4; 290) | 114 (32.2; 317) | 32.3 (11.1; 80.1) | 16.2 (5.55; 40.2) | 48.3 (16.6; 120) | 18.4 (8.45; 31.6) |
| Total DALYs avertedb (thousands) | 393 (172; 895) | 401 (127; 1,060) | 101 (34.8; 249) | 50.5 (17.4; 125) | 151 (52.2; 372) | 57.2 (26.6; 97.9) |
| Total QALYs gainedb (thousands) | 2,160 (1,050; 4,770) | 1,890 (834; 4,530) | 871 (342; 2,030) | 438 (171; 1,020) | 1,300 (513; 3,020) | 496 (281; 716) |
| Healthcare Costsc ($ billions) | −57.1 (−127; −27.8) | −47.5 (−116; −19.5) | −23.6 (−54.9; −9.33) | −11.9 (−27.7; −4.67) | −35.3 (−81.7; −14.0) | −13.5 (−19.4; −7.61) |
| Net costsd ($ billions) | −56.7 (−126; −27.3) | −47.0 (−116; −19.1) | −20.5 (−52.6; −5.86) | −11.4 (−27.3; −4.23) | −34.9 (−81.3; −13.5) | −13.0 (−19.0; −7.19 |
| Healthcare cost savings per $ intervention cost ($) | 133 (59.6; 319) | 110 (42.6; 294) | 7.46 (2.69; 23.8) | 27.6 (10.5; 70.4) | 82.1 (31.4; 208) | 31.3 (16.1; 54.5) |
| Net cost per LY saved ($) | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge |
| Net cost per DALY averted ($) | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge |
| Net cost per QALY gained ($) | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge | Cost-savinge |
DALYs, Disability-adjusted Life Years; Dollars, July 2014 U.S. dollars; LYs, Life-years; TEI, Total Energy Intake
Cost per BMI unit reduced based on two year of cost of implementation and total BMI reduction for all ages in the 2015 cohort.
DALYs averted and QALYs gained due to the proposed intervention are calculated as the difference in the simulated health-adjusted years of life lived in the intervention cohort over ten years compared to the baseline cohort of the United States population >1 year of age in 2015.
The reduction in health care costs refers to the simulated difference in ten-year healthcare costs due to the intervention for a baseline cohort of the U.S. population in 2015. Healthcare costs and health effects are estimated annually and are reported as present value in July 2014 dollars discounted at 3% annually.
Net costs include total implementation costs and healthcare cost savings over ten years.
Interventions are considered “Cost-saving,” and summary statistics are not calculated when they result in both a cost savings and a reduction in DALYs or an gain in QALYs55
Pass-through rates refer to the proportion of the total value of the imposed excise tax incorporated into the price paid by consumers.81